Historic Drought Takes Long Weekend Off

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

UPDATE: This blog post is a combination of the last two articles that appeared in "The County Times Two", with relevant updates.

The National Weather Service in Amarillo held a press conference Thursday, May 22, in which the last 43 months were declared to be the driest ever for the Texas Panhandle since record keeping began. The atmosphere, however, acted as if it got caught with its proverbial hand in the cookie jar. Soon after the press conference, the heavens opened up for a multi-day rain event, as if the atmosphere was saying “Historic drought? What drought? Ain’t no drought here!” 

Rain began in earnest Thursday evening and continued through Sunday. The NWS reports a total of 1.22” of rain fell at the airport Thursday thru Sunday. In town, my rain gauge picked up 1.75”. Channing reported 2.32” to the NWS by Monday morning. 

Texaspivot.com displayed a 72 hour running rain total online Saturday evening. Farmland near Dalhart received anywhere from 1” to 1.5”. The Hartley area received between 0.75” and 1.25”. In western Hartley county, near Romero, rain totals approached 1.75”. The Texline area saw 1” to 1.25”. Rain on Sunday was more localized, staying mostly in southern Hartley county, which is not represented on Texaspivot.com. 

It seems all of the Texas panhandle got much needed rainfall. A graphic from the NWS (included in this blog post) shows most areas got at least an inch. Rain totals up to 4" were seen in the Amarillo and Hereford areas. Storms fired up as far south as Lubbock, causing localized flooding in places.

Dalhart had only received 0.30” of precipitation since January 1, 2014. That was actually less moisture for the year compared to the same time period in 2011 when the drought first intensified. We now have 1.38” for the year (this includes 0.15" from a short but intense thunderstorm on May 17.) 

We are still in a historic drought, but at least it took the weekend off! We will look at the NWS press conference in more detail next blog. Suffice it to say, our current drought is worse than the drought of the 1950's, and worse than the infamous Dust Bowl era of the 1930's.

“As of today (May 20), all counties in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are currently experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions,” read a NWS press release. “This historic drought began in the fall of 2010 and intensified in 2011 and again during the first half of 2014. Even though periods of short term drought relief have occurred since 2010, long term drought impacts still persist.”

So, how does it feel it to be historic? Kind of makes me thirsty.

High and low temps since last update

May 6: 90, 45

May 7: 88, 49

May 8: 77, 42

May 9: 80, 40

May 10: 90, 44

May 11: 91, 45

May 12: 57, 41

May 13: 58, 39

May 14: 67, 35

May 15: 76, 42

May 16: 87, 41

May 17: 81, 49

May 18: 88, 51

May 19: 96, 55

May 20: 95, 52

May 21: 85, 52

May 22: 86, 51

May 23: 71, 58

May 24: 75, 56

May 25: 75, 50

Weather Stats for Your Fantasy Weather Team

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

Did you enjoy spring? I believe it happened on Friday of last week, sandwiched between a blinding dust storm before and summer-like heat afterwards. Friday was the perfect spring day. Blue sky. Calm wind of 7 mph. High of 78 degrees. Not to hot. Not to cold. No dirt. 

It seems to me that the ordinary, beautiful spring day is becoming a rare weather event around these parts! I am exaggerating, of course. Most days have been nice, even the hot ones. We tied our daily high temperature record on Sunday, May 4, with a high of 96, according to a post on Twitter from the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. 

A tree was blown down during the
April 26 dust storm. Photo by
Sandy Milanesi.

Even the heat is preferable to blowing dust. When I wrote this article (Tuesday afternoon), the wind was picking up, and I could see dirt being lofted into the air on the southern horizon. Fortunately, however, it was a small-scale event, and we did not get the kind of sky-browning dust storm we had to endure on April 26.

Blowing dirt on April 26 prompted a “Dust Storm Warning” from the NWS, the fourth such warning this year. The automated weather station at the Dalhart airport recorded sustained winds of 40 mph. Keep in mind, that is not a wind gust, but a sustained wind that just kept on blowing. Our peak wind gust was 59 mph. Law enforcement reported to the NWS that visibilities were less than a quarter mile at times. 

The wind took out a giant tree in the alley between Peters and Conlon near 4th Street. Fortunately, the tree did not fall on any structures, but it tore up the power lines. It yanked the lines down with such force that it ripped the electrical meter box off a nearby house. 

After the dust storm, we actually got some rain. If you blinked, you missed it. A small rain shower moved through on Thursday, May 1, and the airport recorded 0.01”. That brings our year-to-date precipitation total up to 0.30”.

April ended dry with only 0.11” of precipitation, about half of that from an inch of snow back on the 14th. We fell 0.97” short of the 30 year average - 1.08” - for the month of April. 

April 2014 ended a degree warmer that the 30 year average. We had an average daily high of 71.5 degrees and an average daily low of 37.9 degrees. (Average those two numbers together, and you get 54.7 degrees, which is the number used to compare overall temperature for the month.) Our hottest days in April were the 12th and 26th, each with a high of 88 degrees. 

What can we expect for May? Our 30 year average precipitation for the month is 2.24”. However, we haven’t seen anything near that over the past five years. Our best May in recent memory was 2010, with 1.67” of rain. Our average high over the past five years has varied from the mid 70’s to the low 80’s. 

UPDATE: For the rest of this week, high temperatures will stay in the upper 70's to lower 80's through Sunday. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday evening. A cold front expected on Sunday will drop us back into the 60's on Monday. 

A quick correction: In last week’s article, I used the term “D5 - exceptional drought” in reference to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The correct term is “D4 - exceptional drought”. 

High and low temps the past week

Apr 29: 60, 37

Apr 30: 61, 33

May 1: 59, 36

May 2: 78, 32

May 3: 90, 42

May 4: 96, 49

May 5: 95, 52

Comparing May (avg. high, avg. low, rain, snow)

2013: 82.7, 48.2, 0.44”, Trace

2012: 76.0, 43.8, 1.17”, 0”

2011: 82.5, 45.1, 0.03”, Trace

2010: 77.8, 47.6, 1.67”, 0”

2009: 77.6, 48.3, 0.23”, 0”

Total precip. for 2014: 0.30”

May (to date): 0.01”

April: 0.11”

March: 0.09”

February: 0.08”

January: 0.01”

El Niño Could Help Ease Drought By This Winter

Dalhart Weather Review 

By Aaron Graves

The color of spring in Dalhart! The fourth dust storm
in two months made for an interesting sky Tuesday.

The sky turned various shades of brown Tuesday, thanks to yet another dust storm. I personally witnessed hues of almond, bisque, camel, and Oklahoma at various times throughout the day. The wide-spread browning of the heavens triggered a dust storm warning from the National Weather Service in Amarillo, the fourth such warning this year. 

Naturally, this would be the week I picked to review the ongoing drought. Any short-term prospects for relief look grim, but there is some good news to pass along. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor for April 22 looks as if someone spilled dark red ink across the Texas panhandle. Most of the area is listed as D4 “exceptional drought” on a scale of D0 (no drought) to D4 (worst). In fact, the 42 months from October 2010 to March 2014 are considered the driest 42 month period for the High Plains region of the Texas panhandle since 1895, this according to the Drought Monitor’s weekly summary. 

The Drought Monitor shows 12% of Texas in D4 drought conditions, most of it concentrated in the Texas panhandle. The last time we were this bad was in July of 2013. Any drought relief from last year’s late summer rains and winter snowfall has all but dried up.  

UPDATE: The Drought Monitor for April 29 now has 17% of the state in D4 drought, including the entire Texas panhandle. The report added: "U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports indicated that 78% of Texas and 72% of Oklahoma topsoil was short or very short of moisture. The Oklahoma State research station in Goodwell reported widespread crop loss and destruction, with the abandonment of all dryland winter wheat in Cimarron" county, 40 miles north of Dalhart. 

The Climate Prediction Center expects drought conditions to continue in our area through the end of July, according to a report issued April 17. However, the Texas panhandle has “equal chances” of seeing above average, below average, or normal precipitation over the next three months. That could be good news for us, but only time will tell.  

Todd Lindley, Science and Operations Officer with the Amarillo NWS, confirms the drought is deepening. He comments: “There is no strong climate signal dictating how our growing season rains will unfold this season, other than to say our current momentum is certainly favoring persistent or worsening drought through summer.”

But there is a glimmer of hope, a silver lining behind the dust storm: the return (we hope) of El Niño. “There is reason to be optimistic that the developing El Niño may eventually bring chances for increased moisture,” Lindley said. “Confidence for the development of El Niño is increasing.  Based on data from mid-April, the likelihood of El Niño during the August to December time frame is now 70 to 80%.”

El Niño refers to a warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean. As the ocean water near the equator heats up, it helps to shift weather patterns around the world. In general, our area sees more rain. 

“It is hard to correlate El Niño to the weather at any one given location,” Lindley added, “but in general, the Southern Great Plains and the Texas Panhandle could expect to see relatively more moist and, on average, cooler temperatures during an El Niño. Interestingly, 8 out of the 10 snowiest years on record at Amarillo have occurred during El Niño.”

When might we see the benefits if an El Niño does develop as expected? 

“It is possible we could see influences of it by fall,” Lindley said, “but the more likely time frame for an El Niño to influence our weather would be during the winter.”

That is good news indeed. However, we still have to get through this summer first. Dalhart has only received 0.11” of precipitation for the month of April. Light sprinkles and spotty rain showers rolled through town Sunday. However, only a trace was recorded at the airport. The cold front that brought the sprinkles dropped our daily high temperatures from the 80's down into the 60's.  

We will begin to warm back into the 70's by Friday. Look for a high in the mid 80's on Saturday, and the mid 90's on Sunday. No rain is in the forecast. The winds should stay calm over the weekend. 

I cannot emphasize enough the need to get advance warning of bad weather. Even during a drought, severe weather is still a threat. If you haven’t already, please sign up for text message alerts at the www.r2beready.com website. For help in doing so, go back two blog posts from this one. Also, check out last week's blog about mobile apps that work like weather radios. 

Speaking of mobile apps, I have a quick update to last week’s blog: the NOAA Weather Radio HD app worked as advertised - it alerted me to the dust storm warning. To my surprise, the Intellicast radar app also sent me an alert. I was unaware push alerts were a feature of that app.  

High and low temps the past week

Apr 22: 85, 47

Apr 23: 87, 60

Apr 24: 71, 44

Apr 25: 87, 39

Apr 26: 88, 50

Apr 27: 73, 45

Apr 28: 67, 37

Thanks for reading! This blog post originally appears every Wednesday in "The County Times Two" e-mail newsletter. To subscribe, contact Robin Scott at thecountytimestwo@live.com. Any updates to the Wednesday article are usually indicated in italics on this blog. The forecast for the weekend is always updated before posting.