Continued good news on drought

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

Yes, we are still in a drought. And yes, conditions are still expected to improve!

The latest seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for drought conditions in our area to ‘remain but improve’ through the end of January 2015. We still have a 33% chance of seeing above average precipitation over the next three months, which is great

news considering this is our driest time of the year. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor map issued Oct. 21 has most of Dallam County in “severe drought”. Hartley County is split between “moderate drought” in the southwestern part and “severe drought” in the northeastern part. There is a patch of land considered “extreme drought” running from east of Dalhart southeast into most of Moore County. 

Over the past week, we did not see any rain. Our month-to-date precipitation total stands at 1.01”, our year-to-date total is 11.20”. We enjoyed a warm weekend. Our high of 87 on Oct. 24 broke the record high of 85 degrees set in 2012. We finally maxed out with a high of 90 degrees on Oct. 26, before falling back into the 60's the next day. 

High temperatures will continue in the upper 60's for the rest of this week. Overnight lows look to fall into the low 40's or upper 30's. 

As for El Niño , forecasters at the CPC expect it “to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015," according to their latest report. "The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season.”

El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean water, which in turn shifts weather patterns around the world. Traditionally, El Niño makes our little corner of Texas wetter. By how much? That remains to be seen. “This El Niño will likely remain weak throughout its duration” and might last into the spring of 2015. 

High and low temps the past week

Oct 21: 77, 45

Oct 22: 78, 56

Oct 23: 79, 49

Oct 24: 87, 47

Oct 25: 88, 42

Oct 26: 90, 47

Oct 27: 64, 45

No Freeze, Instead Warm Up Under Way

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

When will it freeze in Dalhart? It is always hard to say for sure. Our average first freeze date is Oct. 14th, according to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. October 14th has come and gone, and we have not seen our first freeze yet.

Overnight low temperatures did drop below 40 on the 14th and 15th. However, a warm up is underway, as forecast. Overnight lows are expected to get back up to near 50 degrees and daytime temps will warm back into the mid 80’s through Sunday of this week. Of course, check the forecast daily. You never know if something is going to sneak up on us. 

We picked up another 0.09” of rain on Saturday, Oct. 18. This brings our monthly total precipitation to 1.01” and our year-to-date total to 11.20”. We have rain in the forecast again for today. 

How do you get your weather information? Is it by a smart phone app? The Amarillo TV stations? The local KXIT radio? A shared link to a weather graphic on Facebook? What follows is my personal opinion, but I hope it contains some good advice. 

First of all, weather should come from a meteorologist, preferably one who lives in the Texas Panhandle and understands Panhandle weather. Thus, if my smart phone app says sunshine, but Doppler Dave in Amarillo says rain, I’m gonna grab my umbrella. Likewise, if the Weather Channel’s national outlook disagrees with the local TV weatherman or weatherwoman, I’m gonna listen to the local forecaster.

However, thanks to smart phones and tablets, we don’t have to wait until the 6 o’clock news to see the forecast. It is soooo much easier to download a weather app. Some apps provide automated weather information not vetted by an actual meteorologist. With that in mind, I recommend you create a link on your device to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. The web address is www.weather.gov/ama. 

When you visit that web address, you will see a map of the Texas Panhandle. Click on Dalhart and you will be taken to the forecast page for our area. If a change in the weather is a-brewing, usually there is a graphic on the home page as well. This will be as accurate a forecast as is possible, created by trained meteorologists that live in our area. 

In future articles, I will talk more about how to access trustworthy weather information online.

High and low temps the past week: 

Oct 14: 73, 39

Oct 15: 85, 37

Oct 16: 84, 44

Oct 17: 69, 44

Oct 18: 56, 44

Oct 19: 77, 46

Oct 20: 77, 46

October Tornado - Just How Close Was It?

Dalhart Weather Review 

by Aaron Graves

Thursday evening, Oct. 9, held the promise of rain. Clouds were approaching from the west. The sun had set, its rays replaced by flashes of lightning. Another beneficial downpour was at hand. Suddenly, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Dalhart, with a possible tornado 10 miles from town. It was 10:07 p.m.

The "October Tornado" had everyone talking, but what really happened? Officially, no funnel cloud or tornado, or tornado damage for that matter, was reported to the National Weather Service in Amarillo. The warning was issued because Doppler radar detected a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. 

"This storm was not a classic tornadic supercell," says Todd Lindley, Science and Operations Officer at the NWS, "but the structure and rotation was enough to support a brief, weak tornado." Lindley knows this because Doppler radar can determine which direction rain drops are moving in a storm, and can thus see rotating winds. 

Figure 1 - Courtesy NWS Amarillo

"The rotation with this storm reached about 100 mph about 6,000 feet above the ground," Lindley added. This can be seen in Figure 1. The green and red colors depict winds moving in opposite directions. The circled area indicates the rotation that triggered the warning. Figure 2 is a traditional radar image. Notice the notch in the storm as rain is wrapping around the rotation. 

Figure 2 - Courtesy National Weather Service

Both images indicate that a tornado was possible Thursday. However, with the NWS radar some 90 miles away from Dalhart, it cannot see the winds close to the ground due to the curve of the earth's surface. There is really no way to know if a tornado touched down if it wasn't seen by someone close by. 

Fortunately, the storm was moving due east and not headed towards Dalhart. Even though a tornado was not confirmed, the storm dumped hail up to 2.75" in diameter (baseball size) as it crossed U.S. Hwy. 87 between Dalhart and Hartley. 

It is surprising to have to deal with a tornado warning in October, but bad weather cannot be ruled out this time of year. "In addition to the typical spring severe weather season, we do see a relative peak in severe weather in the fall," Lindley said. "There typically is a window of opportunity for severe weather roughly from September to early November. This is when we start to see strong weather systems containing cold fronts and stronger winds aloft move through the area before the warm-season moisture is totally vacated from the region."

Such was the case on Oct. 9. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK had sent word there was a slight risk of tornadoes across the Texas Panhandle. In addition, a cold front had stalled over the nearby. Such a boundary can enhance rotation in a storm, Lindley added. 

Officially, we received 0.81" of rain at the airport from Thursday's storm. Texaspivot.com shows rain totals up to 1.40" where the core of the storm moved south of Dalhart. Storms rolled through again Oct. 12, giving us another 0.11" of rain. 

Therefore, we have 0.92" of rain for October. This is a very good thing! Our year-to-date total precipitation is 11.11", still about 5" short of normal. However, this time last year, we only had 6.66". 

A CoCoRahs volunteer reported 0.55" of rain in Texline on Oct. 9. Another volunteer on S. Sedan Road reported a total of 0.79" for Oct. 9 and Oct. 12. 

September 2012 ended with 1.55" of precipitation for Dalhart, an average high of 82.1 degrees, and an average low of 57.6 degrees. Since October 1, our daily high temperatures have generally been in the 70s and 80s, although it got a bit chilly with a high of only 58 degrees on Oct. 10. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Sep 30: 81, 52

Oct 1: 83, 51

Oct 2: 71, 50

Oct 3: 64, 43

Oct 4: 77, 37

Oct 5: 82, 45

Oct 6: 84, 45

Oct 7: 87, 47

Oct 8: 86, 53

Oct 9: 77, 57

Oct 10: 58, 47

Oct 11: 60, 47

Oct 12: 82, 44

Oct 13: 62, 43

Drought Improvement Noted on U.S. Drought Monitor

Dalhart Weather Review (and Bird Report)

By Aaron Graves

This raccoon was taking dining on some
berries at Lake Rita Blanca, which
is green again thanks to recent rains.

September has been a good month. We have seen rain and cooler temperatures. Most important, however, is that drought conditions have improved somewhat. 

The last time the U.S. Drought Monitor categorized our area as experiencing “D4 Exceptional Drought”, the worst ranking on a scale of D0 to D4, was back on Sept. 2. Since then, the area from Dalhart southeast to Dumas has been downgraded to “D3 Extreme Drought”, with the rest of Dallam County listed as “D2 Severe”.

Of note is an area from southwestern Hartley County south to Hereford, where the drought ranking is listed as “D1 Moderate” to just “D0 Abnormally Dry”. What a far cry from May of this year, when the entire Texas Panhandle was considered in “Exceptional Drought”.  

Drought improvement for our area is still being forecast by the Climate Prediction Center. Expect the drought to remain but improve through the end of December, according to the latest seasonal outlook issued Sept. 18. Likewise, the three month precipitation outlook gives us a 33% chance of above average rain/snowfall through December.

Monday evening saw a line of thunderstorms move across northwestern Dallam County. The heaviest rainfall, according to Texaspivot.com, stayed north of Hwy. 54, with rain totals between 0.25” and 0.50”. The core of the storm dropped between 0.75” northwest of Dalhart, to over an inch in places north of town along Hwy. 385. Rain totals dropped off significantly east of Dalhart and around Hartley, with only 0.10” or less being recorded in places. 

The National Weather Service in Amarillo measured 0.42” at the Dalhart airport, which brings us to 1.55” for the month and - drum roll, please - 10.19” for the year. (Yes! Double Digits! WooHoo!) I received 0.50” in my rain gauge on the southeast side of Dalhart. CoCoRahs volunteers reported 0.80” along S. Sedan Road, and 0.73” in Texline. 

Bird Report

Keep your eyes sharp to spot these birds at Rita Blanca Lake. I have seen them myself over the past week. 

Most impressive is the Great Blue Heron, a large bird that can be seen standing upright in the lake or up in the trees along its edge. Common Terns (a white bird with a black hood) fly over the lake in small groups, dive-bombing the lake’s surface to get food. The smaller birds you might see skimming the lake’s surface are swallows. 

Around the grassy edges is a funny looking black duck with a white beak. That’s not a duck, it’s a Coot. There are a lot of them this year. Another noticeable bird is the Avocet (white with black stripes and an unforgettable curved bill). They stick their heads under water and turn tail up. 

As for ducks, I spotted the Northern Shoveler. The are a smaller duck and easy to spot thanks to an unusually large bill. They also dip head first into the lake, leaving their tails sticking up. 

Flying overhead in small flocks are the Red-Winged Blackbirds. Especially numerous this time of year is the gigantic Turkey Vulture, which can be seen gliding in lazy circles around town. 

High and low temps the past week

Sept 22: 80, 63

Sept 23: 88, 63

Sept 24: 83, 56

Sept 25: 83, 50

Sept 26: 82, 52

Sept 27: 83, 54

Sept 28: 82, 58

Sept 29: 81, 58