EXTRA! EXTRA! Drought Retreats!

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows a significant reduction in the drought across Texas and Oklahoma. Even Dallam and Hartley counties was downgraded to "moderate" drought in the eastern parts and "abnormally dry" in the western parts. We haven't see conditions this good since early March of 2011. More details to come. 

Again, the drought relief has been widespread thanks to record rainfall and historic flooding. The following are excerpts from the text summary that accompanies the map:

National Drought Summary for May 26, 2015

"An extraordinarily active weather pattern led to flood intensification across the central and southern Plains, culminating in a Memorial Day weekend deluge. The latest round of heavy rain pushed Oklahoma to its wettest month on record, based on preliminary data, supplanting October 1941. 
"Mostly dry weather returned to North Dakota, but the remainder of the nation’s mid-section continued to receive substantial rainfall. A small pocket of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) persisted from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota. Otherwise, the Plains were free of severe drought, with only a few remaining pockets of moderate drought—largely due to lingering hydrological concerns. In Texas, reservoirs were collectively 82.0% full by May 27, up from 73.2% a month ago and 62.5% six months ago. In the last month, reservoir storage in Texas has increased 2.77 million acre-feet.

"By May 26, month-to-date rainfall totals climbed to 18.97 inches in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and 14.53 inches in Wichita Falls, Texas. In both locations, those values represent the highest monthly totals on record. Previously, Oklahoma City’s wettest month had been June 1989, with 14.66 inches, while Wichita Falls’ had been May 1982, with 13.22 inches. Oklahoma City’s total was boosted by a daily-record total (3.73 inches) on May 23, part of a broad heavy rain event that led to catastrophic flash flooding in portions of the south-central U.S. In Texas, for example, preliminary USGS data indicated that the Blanco River at Wimberly rose more than 35 feet in less than 8 hours, cresting on May 24 at 27.21 feet above flood stage. The preliminary high-water mark at Wimberly was 6.91 feet above the previous record set on May 28, 1929. The San Marcos River near Martinsdale, Texas, surged more than 51 feet in less than 24 hours on May 23-24, based on initial data.

Is El Niño delivering on its promise?

Dalhart Weather Review

(May 5 - May 18)

by Aaron Graves

2015 is the wettest start to any year since the drought began.

Forecasters were calling for a wet spring thanks to an El Niño weather pattern, and so far so good! Dalhart has recorded 1.16" of rain for May as of Tuesday afternoon, May 20. We are trailing our monthly normal by a mere tenth of an inch.

We have enjoyed seven days this month with measurable rainfall. The biggest day by far was Tuesday's gully washer, which dropped 0.37" in just a few minutes. Our annual precipitation total is 5.85" as of May 19, a good 1.41" above normal. By way of comparison, at this time last year we had only received 0.45". 


In fact, as can be seen on the above graph provided by the National Weather Service in Amarillo, this is the wettest start to any year since the drought began.

The rainy weather has kept keep temperatures moderate, with daytime highs in the 60's and 70's the past two weeks. Our hottest day was May 15 with a high of 80 degrees. Overnight lows have fallen as cool as 38 degrees on May 11 and May 12.

The rain has been beneficial for area ag interests according to Kerry Todd. "While it has corn planting a little behind normal, it has saved irrigation expense and water by not having to water wheat and alfalfa as much," Todd said.

The above mentioned stats are from the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service as recorded at the Dalhart airport. Let's take a stroll around Dallam and Hartley county using rain totals from farmland pivots posted at Texaspivot.com.

Farmland around Texline has seen between 3" and 3.5" over the past week (May 13 to May 19). Along U.S. Hwy. 385 north of Dalhart totals are between 1.5" and 2", with totals approaching 2.5" in the grasslands. Rain totals along North Sedan Road (Hwy 102) range from 2.5" to 3.5". Along U.S. Hwy. 54 towards Stratford rain totals range between 1.75" and 2".

Pivots south of Dalhart recorded 1.5" to 2" the past week with similar totals along the Etter Highway. Rain totals start at 1.5" west of Hartley to top 3" east of town. Along U.S. Hwy. 54 heading towards New Mexico, rain totals are general between 1.25" and 1.5".

 

Drought conditions a month ago.

Current drought conditions

Widespread rainfall across the Texas panhandle has brought significant drought relief, according to the latest map from the U.S. Drought Monitor. At this time last month, 18 panhandle counties - in whole or in part - were experiencing "extreme" drought conditions. Most of those counties have been downgraded to "abnormally dry", with some areas only considered "abnormally dry".
 
This includes Dallam and Hartley counties were, just this week, we were downgraded to "moderate" drought in the eastern parts of both counties and "severe" in the western parts. Hopefully more relief will come as rain continues in the forecast through his weekend.


Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are giving this El Niño weather pattern a 90% chance of sticking around through summer, and an 80% chance of lasting through the end of 2015. The warmer than normal waters in Pacific Ocean tend to bring more rain to the Texas panhandle.

"By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific," reads the latest report on El Niño from the CPC, issued May 14. 

Hi and low temps the past two weeks

May 5: 69, 51
May 6: 79, 49
May 7: 79, 45
May 8: 72, 52
May 9: 76, 44
May 10: 64, 39
May 11: 65, 38

May 12: 71, 38
May 13: 64, 49
May 14: 79, 46
May 15: 80, 53
May 16: 72, 51
May 17: 75, 43
May 18: 71, 49

Rain! The sequel!

Dalhart Weather Review
(Apr 28 - May 4)

by Aaron Graves

Once again, our work week started with rain! Wide areas of light to moderate rain showers soaked portions of eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle Monday and Tuesday. By yesterday evening, Dalhart recorded 0.31" at the airport, according to the Amarillo National Weather Service office. 

This brings our precipitation total to 3.45" for the year, which is 1.55" above normal. 

Texaspivot.com posted 72 hour rain totals on their website yesterday evening. These totals come from automatic rain gauges on pivots throughout Dallam and Hartley counties. Northern Dallam County saw between 1" and 1.5", with the Texline area generally seeing an inch. Southern Dallam county averaged 0.75" of rain, though some areas along Hwy 102 saw over an inch. The Hartley area saw rain totals between an 1" and 1.25". Western Hartley county had lower rain totals along U.S. Hwy. 54, anywhere from 0.35" to a half an inch in general. 

The overcast skies helped cool daytime high temperatures that had been in the mid 80's for several days to the mid 70's on Monday.  

More rain is in the forecast Thursday through Saturday. Daytime highs will continue in the mid to upper 70's through the weekend.  

April 2015 ended with 1.30" of precipitation, an average high of 72.7 degrees, and an average low of 39.8 degrees. 

High and low temps the past week

Apr 28: 63, 38
Apr 29: 73, 39
Apr 30: 82, 40
May 1: 83, 47
May 2: 85, 55
May 3: 86, 51
May 4: 77, 55

Just what is a drought, and why recent rain does not erase it overnight

Dalhart Weather Review

(Apr 7 thru Apr 27)

by Aaron Graves

Non-severe storm over over Conlen, TX.

Thankfully, what was dry is now wet. Rain finally returned to the Dalhart area the middle part of April, and we have seen several rainy days since. There were reports of large hail and some tornadoes, but all the severe weather stayed east of us. 

Dalhart picked up 1.30" of rainfall since mid April. We recorded 0.40" of precipitation at the airport on April 16. Our biggest event was just this past weekend, when 0.77" fell between Sunday afternoon to Monday evening. Rain also fell on April 20 and April 22. 

All of this is very good news, and let's hope it keeps coming in the right amount and the right time to help area farmers and ranchers. However, a look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor - issued April 21 - still says we are in dire need of rain. The drought is rated as "moderate" in the eastern part of Dallam and Hartley counties and "extreme" in the western part. In fact, it has looked like this for some time now. Why did our snowy winter not erase the drought?

First you have to understand what a drought is. I posed that question to Nicholas Fenner, the resident drought expert at the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, back on April 9. Fenner replied: "Defining or measuring drought is very complex sometimes, but I've found this definition of it to be very helpful: 'Drought occurs whenever it is dry enough, long enough to cause agricultural, hydrological, social, and/or economical impacts.'"

Thus drought is not only measured in the amount of rain and snow an area receives. Experts take into consideration such factors as river stream flow rates, reservoir levels, crop and rangeland conditions, soil moisture levels, and more. 

Drought is complicated, which means short-term moisture gains can quickly be erased. Fenner explained: "After a fairly wet/snowy winter, March and the first part of April have been warm and dry for the Panhandles.  And in the last 2 weeks [referring to late March, early April], strong winds have combined with the warm and dry air to accelerate soil moisture lost across the area. This weather pattern has generally worsened drought conditions in the Panhandles."

The effects are twofold. Says Fenner: "Short-term impacts... are erasing gains made from good precipitation that fell in the fall and winter. And this has caused longer term drought impacts - subsoil moisture deficits, river flow levels, rangeland health, etc. - to resurface."

Thanks to a weak El Niño weather pattern, there is a slight uptick in our odds for a wetter than normal spring. But any moisture that falls has to battle the effects of an entrenched drought, like trying to put out a large campfire with a small cup of water.  

Fenner explains: "Some parts of the Panhandle are missing a year-and-a-half to two years worth of precipitation over the last four years, and those areas will take the most rainfall to break the drought."

Then there is the climate in general. Not climate change, mind you, but its normal cycles. Fenner continued: "Long term climate analysis suggests that we are in the middle of decade-long patterns which lead to drought in the southwest and western U.S.  The current patterns took hold in the late 1990's and early 2000's.  Hopefully we are digging our way out of those long term drought patterns, but at least some level of drought may be possible from California to Oklahoma through the next 10 years or so."

This drought started for us in late 2010, and it is now April 2015. What is needed to break it? Barring an historic flood (which we don't want), Fenner replied: "The best answer I can give is that we need a return to 'normal' precipitation for more than a month or two at a time to break the drought. The areas that have broken the worst of their drought, like the southwest Texas panhandle, have seen a few years of good warm season rainfall that has penetrated to lower soil zones, and decent winter snowfall and rains that have worked to restore grassland health."  

Fenner concluded: "What we will likely see is gradual spotty improvement across the region following a few more growing seasons, until the core areas of the drought (southwest OK to Wichita Falls to Dalhart) finally are erased." 

High and low temps for the past three weeks

Apr 7: 83, 39

Apr 8: M, 42

Apr 9: 67, 41

Apr 10: 70, 29

Apr 11: 79, 43

Apr 12: 80, 43

Apr 13: 64, 41

Apr 14: 70, 32

Apr 15: 82, 40

Apr 16: 74, 47

Apr 17: 69, 41

Apr 18: 63, 35

Apr 19: 61, 39

Apr 20: 70, 36

Apr 21: 77, 39

Apr 22: 71, 45

Apr 23: 80, 51

Apr 24: 75, 47

Apr 25: 80, 41

Apr 26: 69, 43

Apr 27: 48, 38