What Will It Take To End This Drought?

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

There is a hint of spring in the air, thanks to a number of 60 and 70 degree days over the past couple of weeks. True, we might see a final winter blast in March, as has happened in the past (see updated forecast below), but who can resist the blue skies and warm temperatures? Here at the house, the family bicycles have officially been pulled out of the garage, polished up, and ridden a few laps around the neighborhood. 

Our last truly cold day was back on Feb. 10 when the high temperature never got above freezing. Since then, we have enjoyed five days above 60 degrees and another three days in the 70's. These warm days have been briefly interrupted by cold fronts that drop us back into the 40's, but the effect is short-lived.

March is just around the corner, when snow boots and heavy coats are replaced by hopeful umbrellas at the front door. As we approach the wetter months of the year, the question arises: will we finally get enough rain this year to break the drought? 

How big of a rain event do we need to halt it in its tracks? 

I posed these question to Krissy Scotten, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. The answer was not as simple as I hoped for.

"I cannot say it's going to take just one event," Scotten said. "What it is going to take is a pattern change, from year to year, that brings us normal to above normal rainfall. One big event might bring some short term relief, but what we really need is a significant pattern change."

Ouch. It may take us a couple of years to pull out of this drought? Well consider this fact. Dalhart averages around 18 inches a year in precipitation from rain and snow. However, our precipitation total for the past three years combined is - ready for this - a mere 19 inches. In other words, we are a good 35 inches behind our normal rainfall total.

"That is drier than anything in the Dust Bowl or the 1950's," Scotten said, "Dalhart is very, very dry. This is a significant drought."

Honestly, we may not want to see a 35 inch rainfall event that breaks the drought. That would be going from one extreme to the other. Even so, a return to a normal rainfall pattern this year will not do us much good if we fall back into a 6 or 7 inch pattern next year. 

So, is there a change in the weather coming that will help us out? Maybe, just maybe.

"El Niño is showing signs of returning this fall," Scotten said. "That could really help. We tend to see more snow in the winter and more thunderstorms in the spring during an El Niño."

We will discuss El Niños and La Niñas in a future article, but here is a quick overview. The heat and moisture generated by the Pacific Ocean affects weather patterns around the world. A La Niña pattern, in which the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal, tends to push the rain and snow away from our area. Sure enough, when our drought began, a La Niña pattern was in play that year. An El Niño, on the other hand, means the ocean is warmer than normal, and it could very well bring the rain back.

For now, however, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting our drought to persist through the end of May, according to the latest outlook issued Feb. 20. However, precipitation is forecast "equal chances" to be above or below average during the same period. In other words, we have a 50/50 chance of seeing a drier or a wetter spring. That's not really good news, but it ain't bad news either.

Meanwhile, Dallam and Hartley counties continue in the grip of an "extreme" drought, according to the US Drought Monitor, released Feb. 20. The majority of both counties are ranked D4 (on a scale of D0 to D5), with the area east of Channing considered D5, "exceptional" drought.

UPDATED: For the rest of this week, we will enjoy a high above 60 degrees today and Friday, Feb. 28. However, after a high of 61 on Saturday, cold weather returns. We have a 20% chance of rain and/or snow Saturday night into Sunday. The high on Sunday is forecast to be a chilly 29 degrees. Until then, expect mostly sunny skies during the day. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s. Sunday's low will be near 13 degrees. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Feb 10: 22, 18

Feb 11: 46, 20

Feb 12: 54, 21

Feb 13: 69, 31

Feb 14: 56, 32

Feb 15: 76, 31

Feb 16: 74, 29

Feb 17: 65, 35

Feb 18: 77, 42

Feb 19: 69, 34

Feb 20: 56, 22

Feb 21: 61, 18

Feb 22: 68, 24

Feb 23: 47, 27

This column makes its initial appearance every Wednesday in "The County Times Two" newsletter, an email newsletter focusing on the positive happenings of Dallam and Hartley counties in the Texas panhandle. To subscribe, contact Robin Scott at thecountytimestwo@live.com. Forecasts mentioned in this blog version of the column are dated by a couple of days and are only updated if a significant change in weather is expected. 

Follow me on Facebook at "Dalhart Cloud Chasing" or on Google+ at "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)" to see more weather and wildlife photos from the Dalhart area.

Make Your Own Snow

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Freezing fog left a heavy layer of frost on the trees.

Have you ever wanted to create your own snow storm? It’s easy. All you need is a cold day, an inversion, and several large factories. While Dalhart residents dealt with cold temperatures and freezing fog, THE weather story of the week took place Monday morning near Borger, with what is being called “factory effect snow.”

It is an extremely rare phenomenon in which the steam produced by a large factory adds enough moisture to the air to form snow. The Amarillo office of the National Weather Service posted a special slide program explaining this, as it does not happen every day. First, the air has to be cold and saturated in the lower levels. Second, the factory steam has to rise and basically become trapped in the correct area of the atmosphere. This is due to an inversion, which is a layer of warmer air in the atmosphere that acts as a cap and prevents the steam from escaping. 

If all conditions are right, snowflakes form, and the wind blows the snow downstream from the factory.  Not only is this a rare thing, but the amount of snow it produced was equally so - up to 3” of snow in narrow bands near Borger. 

Dalhart did not see any snow or ice from the latest cold snap, but freezing fog Sunday and Monday painted tree limbs and fence posts white with frost. This was preceded by a very pleasant weekend, with the high on Saturday reaching 66 degrees. 

Last week’s snow finally totaled 2.8” after three days (Feb. 4, 5 and 6), which was the equivalent of 0.08” of moisture. We shivered our way through overnight lows that fell as low as 4 degrees on Feb 6. 

Warmer weather is in store for the rest of the week. The high today is expected to be in the mid 50s, and we could see the mid 70s by Saturday. Partly cloudy skies will be the norm, and no rain is in the forecast. 

January 2014 ended with an average high of 50.9 degrees and an average low of 19.8 degrees. We received 3” of very dry snow throughout the month. It contained only 0.01” of moisture. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Jan 28: 35, 11

Jan 29: 51, 18

Jan 30: 55, 34

Jan 31: 38, 22

Feb 1: 37, 18

Feb 2: 35, 18

Feb 3: 51, 26

Feb 4: 33, 15

Feb 5: 15, 5

Feb 6: 17, 4

Feb 7: 55, 11

Feb 8: 66, 25

Feb 9: 44, 20

Feb 10: 22, 18

Winter Weather Travel Safety

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Snowfall at Rita Blanca Lake covers the walking trail, right, and
the frozen lake shore, left, creating a peaceful scene.

Update: Since this article appeared in yesterday's "The County Times Two" newsletter, Dalhart has received more snow, a total of 1.3" according to storm reports sent to the NWS office in Amarillo. This is preliminary and we will talk more about it next week. In addition, our high temperature never surpassed 20 degrees, and overnight lows fell to around 4 degrees. Snow chances for this weekend have been removed from the forecast. Updates to the forecast are in italics below.)

Snow fell again overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, the latest winter weather bringing Dalhart at least 1" of the white stuff. Texline reported 2", as did Boise City. Stratford got 1", and Dumas received 2", as reported on the website of the National Weather Service.  

Snow chances continued Wednesday through this morning, as mentioned in the update above. Temperatures will soon begin to warm up, reaching the mid 40s on Friday, and the mid 50s on Saturday. We have another chance of snow on Monday, with high temperatures falling back into the low 30s. 

Last week, I extolled the value of not traveling during winter weather. Of course, travel is unavoidable at times. Our recent snow events have been gentle, with roads clearing quickly. However, it is always a good idea to review winter weather travel safety, especially if you plan to go where winter delivers more of a punch. Actually, it is a good idea if you travel anywhere during the winter months. Last week, northern Alabama and parts of Georgia were surprised as ice and a couple inches of snow snarled traffic on Interstates and other main highways. In some areas, drivers had to shelter overnight in their cars. 

If you plan on traveling, always check the weather and road conditions ahead of time, encourages the NWS in an article on their website. In addition, it is important to get your car winterized. Check your ignition system, cooling system, fuel system, battery, lights, tires, heater, brakes, wipers, defroster, oil, and exhaust.  

Avoid traveling alone, if possible. Make sure others know your travel route and timetable. Stay in touch with these people if you have to change your travel plans. Make sure to stop and top off your gas tank if the weather is looking bad. Carry supplies that could help you if you get stranded, such as a flashlight, windshield scraper, booster cables, and a car charger for you cell phone. To stay safe, also carry extra clothes, matches and candles, blankets, a compass, maps of your travel routes, paper towels, water, and high calorie non-perishable food.

If you end up stranded in a winter storm, remember - never leave your vehicle until help arrives. For heat, run your motor periodically to conserve fuel, about 10 minutes each hour. While you do so, crack the windows for fresh air to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Be sure to keep your exhaust pipe clear of snow when the engine is running. To stay warm, exercise periodically in your car by vigorously moving your arms, legs, toes and fingers. Tie a colored cloth (preferably red) to your antenna or door to signal you need help. 

Hopefully, you will never have to deal with such a situation. However, as I wrote last week, never underestimate winter weather. Even a few inches of snow could lead to a situation you never anticipated.Please, exercise caution and be prepared if you have to travel during winter. 

Data for the high and low temperatures the past week was unavailable at the time of writing.

For local weather and wildlife photos, make sure to follow Aaron on Facebook at "Dalhart Cloud Chasing", or on Google+ at "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)".