Dalhart Weather Review
By Aaron Graves
There is a hint of spring in the air, thanks to a number of 60 and 70 degree days over the past couple of weeks. True, we might see a final winter blast in March, as has happened in the past (see updated forecast below), but who can resist the blue skies and warm temperatures? Here at the house, the family bicycles have officially been pulled out of the garage, polished up, and ridden a few laps around the neighborhood.
Our last truly cold day was back on Feb. 10 when the high temperature never got above freezing. Since then, we have enjoyed five days above 60 degrees and another three days in the 70's. These warm days have been briefly interrupted by cold fronts that drop us back into the 40's, but the effect is short-lived.
March is just around the corner, when snow boots and heavy coats are replaced by hopeful umbrellas at the front door. As we approach the wetter months of the year, the question arises: will we finally get enough rain this year to break the drought?
How big of a rain event do we need to halt it in its tracks?
I posed these question to Krissy Scotten, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. The answer was not as simple as I hoped for.
"I cannot say it's going to take just one event," Scotten said. "What it is going to take is a pattern change, from year to year, that brings us normal to above normal rainfall. One big event might bring some short term relief, but what we really need is a significant pattern change."
Ouch. It may take us a couple of years to pull out of this drought? Well consider this fact. Dalhart averages around 18 inches a year in precipitation from rain and snow. However, our precipitation total for the past three years combined is - ready for this - a mere 19 inches. In other words, we are a good 35 inches behind our normal rainfall total.
"That is drier than anything in the Dust Bowl or the 1950's," Scotten said, "Dalhart is very, very dry. This is a significant drought."
Honestly, we may not want to see a 35 inch rainfall event that breaks the drought. That would be going from one extreme to the other. Even so, a return to a normal rainfall pattern this year will not do us much good if we fall back into a 6 or 7 inch pattern next year.
So, is there a change in the weather coming that will help us out? Maybe, just maybe.
"El Niño is showing signs of returning this fall," Scotten said. "That could really help. We tend to see more snow in the winter and more thunderstorms in the spring during an El Niño."
We will discuss El Niños and La Niñas in a future article, but here is a quick overview. The heat and moisture generated by the Pacific Ocean affects weather patterns around the world. A La Niña pattern, in which the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal, tends to push the rain and snow away from our area. Sure enough, when our drought began, a La Niña pattern was in play that year. An El Niño, on the other hand, means the ocean is warmer than normal, and it could very well bring the rain back.
For now, however, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting our drought to persist through the end of May, according to the latest outlook issued Feb. 20. However, precipitation is forecast "equal chances" to be above or below average during the same period. In other words, we have a 50/50 chance of seeing a drier or a wetter spring. That's not really good news, but it ain't bad news either.
Meanwhile, Dallam and Hartley counties continue in the grip of an "extreme" drought, according to the US Drought Monitor, released Feb. 20. The majority of both counties are ranked D4 (on a scale of D0 to D5), with the area east of Channing considered D5, "exceptional" drought.
UPDATED: For the rest of this week, we will enjoy a high above 60 degrees today and Friday, Feb. 28. However, after a high of 61 on Saturday, cold weather returns. We have a 20% chance of rain and/or snow Saturday night into Sunday. The high on Sunday is forecast to be a chilly 29 degrees. Until then, expect mostly sunny skies during the day. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s. Sunday's low will be near 13 degrees.
High and low temps the past two weeks
Feb 10: 22, 18
Feb 11: 46, 20
Feb 12: 54, 21
Feb 13: 69, 31
Feb 14: 56, 32
Feb 15: 76, 31
Feb 16: 74, 29
Feb 17: 65, 35
Feb 18: 77, 42
Feb 19: 69, 34
Feb 20: 56, 22
Feb 21: 61, 18
Feb 22: 68, 24
Feb 23: 47, 27
This column makes its initial appearance every Wednesday in "The County Times Two" newsletter, an email newsletter focusing on the positive happenings of Dallam and Hartley counties in the Texas panhandle. To subscribe, contact Robin Scott at thecountytimestwo@live.com. Forecasts mentioned in this blog version of the column are dated by a couple of days and are only updated if a significant change in weather is expected.
Follow me on Facebook at "Dalhart Cloud Chasing" or on Google+ at "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)" to see more weather and wildlife photos from the Dalhart area.
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