Special Update #3
By Aaron Graves
Dalhart received more rain the past week. The Amarillo NWS reports 1.82" was recorded at the Dalhart airport since June 22. The big event was Wednesday morning when 1.46" of rain fell just after midnight in a wild lightning-infested thunderstorm extravaganza that lasted two hours! This brings our June rain total to 3.77". Rain chances continue over the next several days.
In a previous post, “Lessons From A Rookie Storm Chase”, I wrote about using my Skywarn training to watch a potentially tornadic thunderstorm in Hartley County. I deleted several paragraphs before posting, paragraphs that expressed doubt and concern over the events that transpired. What basically happened was this: I ended up trying to beat a line of severe storms back to Dalhart and got caught in a blinding downpour. Several miles behind the rain, a confirmed tornado was on the ground.
Thus, despite my best efforts and training, I basically ended up in harm's way. In retrospect, I think those missing paragraphs are worth revisiting. Here are a few more lessons learned from my recent "chase".
Lesson 1 - Vehicles provide little protection. You are surrounded by glass, which does little to stop flying debris and large hailstones. In addition, driving down the highway in a virtual deluge just adds to the risk of injury. Cars are hard to handle on wet roads, even more so when the driver’s attention is divided between the storm and what’s in front of him. There is a big difference between riding out a storm in a sturdy building and riding out a storm in a moving vehicle.
Lesson 2 - Despite training, bad decisions can be made when one is being rushed. In my overwhelming desire to glimpse a tornado, I picked an iffy target. My little isolated storm was too close to a line of severe storms that was closing in fast. Instead of sitting on some back country road and enjoying a discrete thunderstorm, I had to make a sudden decision on which direction to flee. In my desire to return home to the safety and comfort of familiar surroundings, I tried to race back north and got caught.
Hindsight being 20/20, the smart play would have been to drive east and stay ahead of the line. I would have wound up in Dumas, which offers several good locations in which to seek shelter had it been necessary. The idea of going east never crossed my mind at the time.
Lesson 3 - You cannot outguess the atmosphere. Since my target storm never went severe, I thought I could safely race ahead of it. Honestly, however, I cannot predict the future. It could have developed a hail core or a torandic circulation of its own. I sure didn't expect the shear amount of rain I had to contend with, or the fact that the storm directly behind it dropped a tornado.
Don't get me wrong. I enjoy the weather. The next isolated storm that comes within 30 miles of town, I'm going to drive out and take pictures of it -- if it is safe to do so. My recent "chase", however, has helped me to better understand what staying safe entails.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Summer - Set To Arrive On Schedule
Dalhart Weather Review
By Aaron Graves
Summer officially begins June 21, with the solstice scheduled to “happen” at 6:51 a.m. True - it may not be as exciting as the World Cup - nobody is going to yell “GOOOOOAAAAALLLLLLLL!!!!” But it is nice to know that our solar system still functions as designed. From our standpoint, the sun appears to stop drifting northward on a daily basis (thus the name solstice - from the Latin words “sol”, which means “sun”, and “stitium”, which means “to stop”).
Actually, the sun is not moving, we are. The northern hemisphere of the earth is tilted towards the sun at this time of year, giving us more hours of daylight than darkness. As the earth continues it’s orbit of the sun, the northern hemisphere will eventually tilt away by the time the winter solstice arrives. Thus, over the next several months, the sun will appear to drift southward on a daily basis, and our daylight hours will grow shorter.
We enjoy a variety of weather and seasons because of the earth’s tilt. Our warm, sunny days of summer will yield to the majesty of fall. The hush of winter, when the ground rests under a blanket of snow, will give way to the excitement of spring. The cycle of the seasons will continue on for hundreds of thousands of years without us having to do a thing about it. No maintenance is required on our part.
Such is the design of the natural world around us. It is a design so evident that scientists rely on it. We know when the summer solstice will take place this year because of the mathematical, clockwork-like accuracy of our solar system. Even for something as complicated and seemingly chaotic as our atmosphere, scientists have found a way to express its components mathematically so that supercomputers can help generate weather forecasts with increasing accuracy.
And, speaking solely for myself, when I see evidence of design, I see evidence of a Designer. But that is another topic for a different article. Feel free to ask me about it, though. I enjoy nothing more than talking about the beauty of the world around us.
Speaking of which, Dalhart has gone green. Green as far as the eye can see thanks to two incredibly rainy weekends. Storms continued to roll across the Texas panhandle last week, but no rain fell in Dalhart. Temperatures were pleasantly warm, with daytime highs in the 80's and 90's.
We might see a thunderstorm or two over the next few days. We have a 20% chance of storms forecast today through Friday, and again on Sunday. Temperatures will continue to stay at or above 90 degrees.
High and low temps the past week
June 10: 82, 48
June 11: 94, 56
June 12: 76, 60
June 13: 85, 57
June 14: 93, 60
June 15: 85, 55
June 16: 95, 65
Friday, June 13, 2014
Chasing the Wind
Special Update #2
By Aaron Graves
I sat at the corner of Hwy 87 and the Etter road. To my south the rain had let up enough I could see some low hanging SLC's (Scary Looking Clouds). To the north, Dalhart was disappearing behind a curtain of rain so heavy and thick it dumped a half inch of water in just 10 minutes. It was the second such rain event in three days, and I was parked right on the edge if it.
It was an impressive site. Along Hwy 87 a train sat still on the railroad tracks. Even it began to slowly disappear, being swallowed up by the downpour. However, the storm was doing more than providing much needed water.
It was wrecking havoc on our town's trees.
Twigs, branches, and whole trees were blown down. A power pole on Hwy 87 fell, knocking the lights out on the southeast side of town.
The storm, part of a squall line, rolled in Sunday evening about 8:30. By the time I had a chance to drive around and observe the damage for myself, it was already dark. Cleanup began early Monday morning before I was able to continue my observations. Thus, the map above is just a rough estimate of what I personally saw at the time.
North of the yellow outline, I could not find a single twig down. Inside the yellow outline, small twigs were laying in the road here and there. Inside the blue outline, the branches got bigger and more numerous. 11th street seemed to be a focal point for tree damage.
So, what caused such a noticeable damage path? Dalhart was under a tornado watch at the time. However, I saw no major structural damage, so I ruled out a weak tornado, in which wind speeds would have reached 70, 80 or 90 mph.
Squall lines, however, are known for generating strong, straight-line winds. That being said, this storm was not severe when it hit Dalhart. The National Weather Service in Amarillo measured a peak gust of only 48 mph at the local airport. So, what accounts for the downed trees and the damage path along 11th Street?
Todd Lindley, Science and Operations Officer at the Amarillo NWS, told me a 50 mph wind is strong enough to down trees especially when the ground is saturated.
He added: “It is entirely possible that a squall line, or any wind storm for that matter, could easily contain a "corridor" of enhanced winds. In fact, that is probably pretty likely here, given that all observation sites and spotters around the Dalhart area at the time of the storm only received gusts of about 50 mph. This tells me the area covered by the damaging winds must have been small. This could be from some sort of locally enhanced wind associated with a microburst, possibly a gustnado, or perhaps just a swath of stronger wind.”
I've seen gustnadoes spin up and scare everyone nearby into thinking a tornado was coming. They are usually visible out ahead of the rain on storms that have developed a gust front. Those are the storms where it gets real windy before it starts raining. That is not what I saw Sunday.
A wet microburst, as the name implies, usually involves a rush of strong wind embedded inside the rain core. In other words, it starts raining, and then the wind hits. This is what I witnessed parked along Hwy 87.
Since only a few trees were downed, along with only one power pole, I don't believe the microburst was very strong. But I believe there was one, based on the path of tree damage along 11th Street and the surrounding area.
By Aaron Graves
I sat at the corner of Hwy 87 and the Etter road. To my south the rain had let up enough I could see some low hanging SLC's (Scary Looking Clouds). To the north, Dalhart was disappearing behind a curtain of rain so heavy and thick it dumped a half inch of water in just 10 minutes. It was the second such rain event in three days, and I was parked right on the edge if it.
It was wrecking havoc on our town's trees.
Twigs, branches, and whole trees were blown down. A power pole on Hwy 87 fell, knocking the lights out on the southeast side of town.
The storm, part of a squall line, rolled in Sunday evening about 8:30. By the time I had a chance to drive around and observe the damage for myself, it was already dark. Cleanup began early Monday morning before I was able to continue my observations. Thus, the map above is just a rough estimate of what I personally saw at the time.
North of the yellow outline, I could not find a single twig down. Inside the yellow outline, small twigs were laying in the road here and there. Inside the blue outline, the branches got bigger and more numerous. 11th street seemed to be a focal point for tree damage.
So, what caused such a noticeable damage path? Dalhart was under a tornado watch at the time. However, I saw no major structural damage, so I ruled out a weak tornado, in which wind speeds would have reached 70, 80 or 90 mph.
Todd Lindley, Science and Operations Officer at the Amarillo NWS, told me a 50 mph wind is strong enough to down trees especially when the ground is saturated.
He added: “It is entirely possible that a squall line, or any wind storm for that matter, could easily contain a "corridor" of enhanced winds. In fact, that is probably pretty likely here, given that all observation sites and spotters around the Dalhart area at the time of the storm only received gusts of about 50 mph. This tells me the area covered by the damaging winds must have been small. This could be from some sort of locally enhanced wind associated with a microburst, possibly a gustnado, or perhaps just a swath of stronger wind.”
I've seen gustnadoes spin up and scare everyone nearby into thinking a tornado was coming. They are usually visible out ahead of the rain on storms that have developed a gust front. Those are the storms where it gets real windy before it starts raining. That is not what I saw Sunday.
A wet microburst, as the name implies, usually involves a rush of strong wind embedded inside the rain core. In other words, it starts raining, and then the wind hits. This is what I witnessed parked along Hwy 87.
Since only a few trees were downed, along with only one power pole, I don't believe the microburst was very strong. But I believe there was one, based on the path of tree damage along 11th Street and the surrounding area.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Stormy Weekend Downs Trees, Brings Rain, Tornado Scare
Dalhart Weather Review
By Aaron Graves
 |
| One of several trees blown down on Sunday. |
My rain gauge on the southeast side of Dalhart picked up 2.90” between Friday and Sunday. The National Weather Service office in Amarillo recorded a total of 1.94” of rain at the Dalhart airport southwest of town. Our official year-to-date total precipitation is 3.78”
Elsewhere, an observer three miles east of Channing reported 0.70” to the NWS. Texspivot.com reports farmland near Texline generally received about 1.40”. Rain totals north of Dalhart near Hwy 385 were between 1.50” and 2.0”. Rain totals were similar along North Sedan Road. Isolated spots in these areas saw over 2.0”.
South of Dalhart, rain totals approached 4.0” in places. The Hartley area saw between 2.0” and 2.5” of rain. South of Hartley generally saw 1.5”. Rain varied from 0.6” to 1.5” in western Hartley County.
Friday’s storms carried a strong tornado risk with them, drawing storm chasers from several states to the area, including the famous Tornado Intercept Vehicle, or TIV, as seen on the Discovery Channel. A tornado warning was issued Friday evening, which included the cities of Channing, Hartley and Dalhart, as a funnel cloud was reported north of Channing. Motorists battled blinding sheets of rain on Hwy 87 between Hartley and Dalhart.
UPDATE: I got double confirmation from the Amarillo NWS that there was indeed a tornado, not just a funnel cloud, 10 miles northwest of Channing, that stayed on the ground for 8 minutes. Apparently, nothing was damaged. (My report of no tornadoes in "The County Times Two" was in error due to a miscommunication with the NWS.)
Sunday’s storms did not look as menacing as Friday’s, but they carried quite a punch. Several trees were blown down around Dalhart, and a power pole on Hwy 87 was blown over, knocking out power to the southeastern part of town. Tree damage seemed most intense between 7th and 16th from about Denrock east to Hwy 87. Large tree limbs lay in the road along Tennessee Ave and along 11th Street. Power was out on some streets in that area as well. Again, anyone caught on the road had to deal with blinding curtains of rain.
UPDATE: How strong were the winds on Sunday? The Amarillo NWS recorded a peak wind gust of 48 mph at the airport. According to the Beaufort Wind Scale, which is used to determine wind speed by it’s affects on land and water, trees can be uprooted with wind speeds between 55 and 63 mph. "All of our observing sites and reports from spotters and chasers indicated gusts around 50 mph," said Todd Lindley, Science and Operations Officer at the Amarillo NWS. "In wet soils, that can be enough to blow down trees."
The storms dropped our daily high temperatures from the mid 80's to the low 70's. Temperatures should stay mild through Friday until climbing into the mid 90's on Saturday. We could see a stray thunderstorm or two through Friday.
High and low temps the past week
Jun 3: 99, 64
Jun 4: 92, 64
Jun 5: 85, 65
Jun 6: 86, 63
Jun 7: 71, 59
Jun 8: 73, 57
Jun 9: 70, 52
Saturday, June 7, 2014
Lessons From a Rookie Storm Chase
Special Update #1
by Aaron Graves
The first decision was a no-brainer. I just happened to end up behind Sean Casey’s TIV on the back roads of Hartley County in the Texas panhandle. The TIV turned west and barreled into the heart of the storm. I turned east and fled.
Sean has an armored tank. I have a Toyota.
It was when we hit Channing that things got tricky. A severe line of storms was moving in from New Mexico. Do I turn south into the “badlands” of Hartley County, or go north on a level, paved highway back to Dalhart? Either way, that line was going to overtake me. It was a question of where I wanted to be when it did.
I choose to head back to Dalhart. Had I gone south, I might have glimpsed a funnel cloud, possibly a tornado. Instead, I drove through a deluge of epic proportions - an inadvertent core punch.
Don’t get me wrong. I enjoyed every minute of it!
I call my self a “cloud chaser”, because, basically, in the world of storm chasing and storm chasers, I am a roadside spectator. I have logged more miles driving to my office to watch storm chasers streaming on the Internet than I have actually gone storm chasing myself. If a storm comes within 10 miles of Dalhart, I will drive out and try to get some photos, but that’s about the extent of it.
Understand, I would love to build an armored tank and tilt at supercells every spring. I am a trained Skywarn Spotter. I read and watch anything offered by experienced chasers on what and what not to do. But my day to day reality keeps me safely tied to home.
Thus, after three years of drought, I was giddy to see a legitimate risk of tornado producing storms in my neighborhood for the first time since 2010. I knew it was legitimate by all the green dots visible near Dalhart on Spotter Network. This was going to be a great chase, especially since my wife procured herself an iPhone, complete with real time radar and Google maps!
With that, I could now chase up to 30 miles from Dalhart!
When I saw a storm developing in Hartley county near the Texas, New Mexico border, I left Dalhart and headed south. My wife took the job of chase navigator because, well, it is her iPhone. The storm was moving east and we had time to get south of it for the best viewing. Thus, we found ourselves eventually following the TIV.
My little storm was trying hard to put on a show for us. The shear amount of lightning was impressive and scary enough to keep me in the car. But a line of severe storms was quickly advancing from the west. That's when we broke off from the TIV and went to Channing as mentioned at the outset.
In retrospect, the safest option at that point would have been to continue east towards Dumas and ride out the storms there. However, I felt confident I could make it back to Dalhart. My storm never went severe, so even if I had to drive through the outer edge of it, I wasn’t worried about large hail or a tornado surprising me.
Never underestimate the atmosphere. It can change faster than you can drive, and the speed limit on that highway is 75 mph. Instead of being absorbed by the approaching line, my little storm exploded into a massive, rain producing beast. The final 10 miles into Dalhart were unreal. I don’t think anyone has seen rain like that since Noah built the ark.
Just outside of town, we broke out of the heavy downpour. It was like being at the bottom of a canyon. A black wall of rain was visible in front of us. To the side, another wall of rain was consuming the high school football field. Within a minute, the deluge overtook us again.
We eventually sought shelter in a friend’s basement. Spotters reported a funnel cloud near Channing, close to where we had left the TIV behind, so a tornado warning was issued. Afterwards, we parked just outside of Dalhart to watch a full double rainbow take shape as the sun set.
I didn't get an amazing tornado or supercell photo yesterday. But all in all, it was an evening well spent.
The first decision was a no-brainer. I just happened to end up behind Sean Casey’s TIV on the back roads of Hartley County in the Texas panhandle. The TIV turned west and barreled into the heart of the storm. I turned east and fled.
Sean has an armored tank. I have a Toyota.
 |
| The famous Tornado Intercept Vehicle south of Hartley. |
I choose to head back to Dalhart. Had I gone south, I might have glimpsed a funnel cloud, possibly a tornado. Instead, I drove through a deluge of epic proportions - an inadvertent core punch.
Don’t get me wrong. I enjoyed every minute of it!
I call my self a “cloud chaser”, because, basically, in the world of storm chasing and storm chasers, I am a roadside spectator. I have logged more miles driving to my office to watch storm chasers streaming on the Internet than I have actually gone storm chasing myself. If a storm comes within 10 miles of Dalhart, I will drive out and try to get some photos, but that’s about the extent of it.
Understand, I would love to build an armored tank and tilt at supercells every spring. I am a trained Skywarn Spotter. I read and watch anything offered by experienced chasers on what and what not to do. But my day to day reality keeps me safely tied to home.
Thus, after three years of drought, I was giddy to see a legitimate risk of tornado producing storms in my neighborhood for the first time since 2010. I knew it was legitimate by all the green dots visible near Dalhart on Spotter Network. This was going to be a great chase, especially since my wife procured herself an iPhone, complete with real time radar and Google maps!
With that, I could now chase up to 30 miles from Dalhart!
When I saw a storm developing in Hartley county near the Texas, New Mexico border, I left Dalhart and headed south. My wife took the job of chase navigator because, well, it is her iPhone. The storm was moving east and we had time to get south of it for the best viewing. Thus, we found ourselves eventually following the TIV.
My little storm was trying hard to put on a show for us. The shear amount of lightning was impressive and scary enough to keep me in the car. But a line of severe storms was quickly advancing from the west. That's when we broke off from the TIV and went to Channing as mentioned at the outset.
In retrospect, the safest option at that point would have been to continue east towards Dumas and ride out the storms there. However, I felt confident I could make it back to Dalhart. My storm never went severe, so even if I had to drive through the outer edge of it, I wasn’t worried about large hail or a tornado surprising me.
Never underestimate the atmosphere. It can change faster than you can drive, and the speed limit on that highway is 75 mph. Instead of being absorbed by the approaching line, my little storm exploded into a massive, rain producing beast. The final 10 miles into Dalhart were unreal. I don’t think anyone has seen rain like that since Noah built the ark.
Just outside of town, we broke out of the heavy downpour. It was like being at the bottom of a canyon. A black wall of rain was visible in front of us. To the side, another wall of rain was consuming the high school football field. Within a minute, the deluge overtook us again.
 |
| Splashing through puddles at the day's end. |
I didn't get an amazing tornado or supercell photo yesterday. But all in all, it was an evening well spent.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Rainy Pattern Returns To Combat Drought
Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves
Last weekend's rain was refreshing to say the least. Grass greened up around town. Flowers bloomed. Mud was happily tracked across front door foyers and kitchen floors everywhere. Unfortunately, the inch or so of rain Dalhart saw did little to alleviate the ongoing drought locally. However, more rain is in the forecast. We have a chance of thunderstorms every day through Sunday.
Overnight rain showers on May 30 and 31 gave Dalhart another 0.17" of precipitation, as recorded at the airport. Thus, May 2014 ended with 1.55" of rain, which bumped our year-to-date total to 1.84" of precipitation. We had an average high of 82 degrees and an average low of 48.2 degrees.
Summer heat is setting in as our daily high has been in the 80's or 90's since May 27. Temperatures will continue in the 90's through the weekend.
The Amarillo Office of the National Weather Service held a press conference May 22 outlining the latest sobering statics for what is being considered the worst drought ever. Krissy Scotten, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, and Nicholas Fenner, Climate Program Manager, gave a short presentation that can be watched on their YouTube channel.
Scotten declared the last 43 months the driest ever since record keeping began. That would make this drought worse than the drought of the 1950's, and worse than the infamous Dust Bowl ear of the 1930's. As of May 22, Dalhart was behind 38" of precipitation since the onset of the drought in October 2010.
The U.S. Drought monitor for the week of May 20 showed the entire Texas panhandle was experiencing "exceptional drought" conditions. Scotten said the chances of experiencing a drought like this is once every 50 years.
Fenner discussed the impacts of the drought. For the fourth year in a row, the dryland winter wheat crop has failed. Farmers that use irrigation are basically having to run their sprinklers constantly. Native grass has thinned or disappeared completely in some areas. Cattle inventory is down 50% as producers have either sold the cattle or shipped them off to greener pastures in other states.
What will it take to end the drought? Fenner said we need to see the equivalent of one to two years annual precipitation over the next six months to do away with it. Forecasters are still calling for an El Nino to develop, which could bring some relief this winter.
Last week's rain did have some beneficial effects. While Dalhart saw an inch or so of rain, some areas received 4 to 5 inches. This includes the Lake Meredith watershed. Lake Meredith rose almost two feet. In addition, the latest U.S. Drought monitor (May 27) showed parts of the Panhandle being downgraded from "exceptional drought" to "extreme drought". This includes the western part of Hartley County.
May 26: 75, 55
May 27: 83, 54
May 28: 87, 57
May 29: 88, 57
May 30: 88, 64
May 31: 90, 59
Jun 1: 96, 85
Jun 2: 86, 64
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)