Thursday, July 3, 2014

Long Range Outlook Signals Possible Drought Relief

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

The Climate Predication Center is calling for drought conditions in the Texas Panhandle to improve through the end of September. This is good news ~ backed up by almost four inches of rain over the past 30 days! 

The CPC's U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook, issued June 30, forecasts the drought to persist in our area through the end of July. However, the three month Seasonal Outlook, issued June 19, calls for improvement by the end of September. Likewise, the one month and three month precipitation outlooks give us a 1 in 3 chance of receiving above average precipitation.

In addition, talk of an upcoming El Niño weather pattern continues. If El Niño develops, it improves our chances of seeing an above average wet winter and spring. The latest El Niño outlook, released June 30, gives us a 70% chance of El Niño developing during the summer months and an 80% chance of El Niño forming by fall or winter. 

Meanwhile, June 2014 sure did a lot to lift the spirit and green the lawn! We started the month with only 1.84” of precipitation for the whole year, as recorded at the Dalhart airport and reported to the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service. We picked up an additional 3.77” of rain over the past 30 days, giving us 5.61” as of July 1. 

Rain fell almost daily from June 22 through June 25 for a total of 1.82". The bulk of that was due to an impressive thunderstorm that woke the town after midnight on June 25. 

Rain returned to the area Monday, June 30. The main group of severe storms missed the city of Dalhart, but farmland in northeastern Dallam County generally picked up between 0.25” and 0.75”, according toTexaspivot.com. The Hartley area saw about 0.25” Monday evening. The storms generated strong winds and a rolling dust cloud that went through Dalhart right after sunset. A peak wind gust of 75 mph was reported to the NWS. Elsewhere, more than 100 power poles where blown down across the Oklahoma Panhandle from the same storm system. 

More rain was expected yesterday, and rain chances continue in the forecast through Thursday. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map for June 24 (issued June 26) shows some improvement for the Texas Panhandle compared to the end of May. However, most of Hartley County is still considered in "extreme" drought. Most of Dallam County is considered in "exceptional" drought - the worst on the scale. This map, however, does not account for all the rain received last week. It will be interesting to see if there is any additional improvement when the updated Drought Monitor is released. 

Summer is definitely underway as our high temperatures for the past two weeks have been in the upper 80’s to upper 90’s. Our hottest day was Monday, with a high of 100. Temperatures will be cooler today thanks to the recent storms. Expect highs in the 80’s today and tomorrow, warming up into the low 90’s by the weekend. 

In other weather news, a total of six tornadoes were produced by a single supercell thunderstorm that moved out of the Oklahoma Panhandle towards Canadian, Texas on June 22. Four of the tornadoes were rated EF-0, and two, including one near Canadian, were rated EF-1. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Jun 17: 96, 62
Jun 18: 94, 69
Jun 19: 86, 60
Jun 20: 90, 58
Jun 21: 90, 61
Jun 22: 93, 63
Jun 23: 86, 59
Jun 24: 88, 61
Jun 25: 87, 57
Jun 26: 91, 59
Jun 27: 94, 70
Jun 28: 91, 61
Jun 29: 98, 62
Jun 30: 100, 68

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