Local Corn Crop Looking Good Says Crop Consultant

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Dalhart remained dry this past week, despite a hurricane's best effort to send moisture our way. Remnants of Hurricane Odile, a Pacific hurricane that hit the Baja California peninsula, traveled northeast into New Mexico and Texas. Initially, we were forecast to get some good rain from the system, but high pressure located near El Paso kept most of the tropical moisture from traveling too far north. 

Autumn officially began yesterday, Sept. 23. Temperatures have been in the lower 80’s for most of the week, making for pleasant morning and evening walks at the local parks. 

The rain we enjoyed mid-September was welcome, but might be causing a few problems for Panhandle area farmers. "Corn harvesters were waiting for dry-down in some areas," reads the Texas Crop and Weather Report for Sept. 16, provided by Texas A&M, "while picking was underway in others. Wheat planting was delayed due to recent rains. Cooler temperatures have slowed cotton development." Soil moisture was rated "short to adequate", and pastures and rangelands varied from "poor to excellent, with most counties reporting fair." Cattle were reported in good condition. 

On the local level, I asked Kerry Todd how this year's corn crop was doing. Todd is a Certified Crop Advisor and Account Manager for DuPont Pioneer. Previously, he worked with a crop consulting firm in southwest Kansas for 12 years before moving to Dalhart in 2003. Since then, he has worked with producers in Dallam and Hartley Counties, as well as in Cimarron County, Oklahoma, and Union and Colfax Counties in New Mexico. Part of his job includes drawing on 23 years of field experience to help local producers stay successful despite declining groundwater and drought.

Todd estimates 60 to 65% of Dallam and Hartley Counties is planted to corn. "We do have a good crop this year," Todd says, "and the summer rains have been a tremendous help. We will see more consistent yields out of the fields with less irrigation water, as the rain will cover some of the weak spots."

Since the drought first intensified in 2011, there has been a lot of variation in crop yields each year, Todd said. "This year should look more like 2008 to 2010 when we had closer to normal moisture."

As for the recent rains and cooler temperatures? "Rain at harvest can be a hassle," Todd answered, "but we will gladly take it anytime."  

Kerry Todd is married to Debbie, and they have three daughters playing volleyball for the Lady Wolves - Samantha, Madison and Rhiana. I look forward to asking him more crop and weather questions in the future. 

High and low temps the past week:

Sept 15: 72, 59

Sept 16: 82, 58

Sept 17: 81, 58

Sept 18: 82, 54

Sept 19: 81, 60

Sept 20: 86, 61

Sept 21: 81, 64

Hurray for Northwest Flow

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

It seems a lot of attention is given to spring thunderstorms, and rightly so. Spring is the peak of our tornado season (during non-drought years, of course). Storms that form along the dryline and move east bring with them large hail, heavy rain, damaging winds, and a wide variety of storm chasers. 

However, as spring turns into summer, the dryline fades away as a weather producer. Yet Dalhart traditionally sees more rain in July and August than it does in April and May (see stats below). Most of the activity comes from New Mexico and Colorado and arrives in the evening or overnight hours. Why? 

The answer, in case it comes up on a test, is “Northwest Flow”. What is that? The Amarillo office of the National Weather Service provides the answer in the latest edition of “The Dryline”, their quarterly newsletter. It can be read online at www.weather.gov/ama. 

Simply put: Storms like to form along the Rocky Mountains during summer. Northwest flow refers to upper air currents (moving from northwest to southeast) that blow the storms in our direction. 

More complicated: Imagine a big letter “H” hovering over Arizona on a weather map. This is the subtropical ridge, and area of upper level high pressure that sets up over the southwestern United States during summer. Air moves clockwise around the “H”. If you trace your finger around the top of the “H”, you cross over the Rocky Mountains and circle down towards the Texas Panhandle. Any storms that get in the way are brought along for the ride. 

Sometimes these storms can be severe. In fact, a single storm back in 2008 traveled due south from Kansas, circling around the top of  the high pressure area. It was tornado-warned for over two hours, and a tornado was spotted near Black Mesa in Oklahoma. As the storm approached Dalhart’s city limits, it finally made a turn towards the east, and we didn’t see a drop of rain. 

In addition, these summer storms can bring heavy rain over several evenings. Thanks to “Northwest Flow”, we receive beneficial rains from June through August and even into September. 

Dalhart picked up an additional 0.36” of rain at the airport during the early morning hours of Sept. 12, according to the NWS. This brings our monthly total to 1.13”, a good quarter-inch above what we should have at this time of month. Our year to date precipitation total is 9.77”. 

Additional rain reports from Sept. 12 include: 0.75” in my rain gauge on the southeast side of Dalhart, 1.10” from a CoCoRahs observer on S. Sedan Road, and 0.73” from a CoCoRahs observer in Texline. Texaspivot.com reports most areas of Dallam and Hartley Counties got between 0.40” and 0.60” of rain, including up near Texline, north of Dalhart along Hwy. 385, around Hartley, and north of Channing. However, some pivots reported less than 0.20”. 

September has not disappointed us when it comes to cooling things down a bit. Our average daily high for the first half of the month is 82.5 degrees. In fact, the cold front that brought us rain on Sept. 12 kept our high temperature at 62 degrees. The last 60 degree day we enjoyed before Sept. 12 was on May 14. Likewise, our low temperature on Sept. 12 was 44 degrees. The last 40 degree night was on June 10. 

Above, I mentioned that Dalhart receives more rain during July and August than during April and May. This is based on information provided by the National Climatic Data Center. They establish normal high and low temperatures and precipitation totals by using statistics over a 30 year period. The current 30 year period is from 1981 to 2010. Here is a look at what is normal for Dalhart by month in this format: High Temperature, Low Temperature, Precipitation:

30 Year Averages for Dalhart

Jan: 50.0, 19.4, 0.52”
Feb: 53.0, 22.6, 0.40”
Mar: 61.2, 29.4, 1.17”
Apr: 69.5, 37.7, 1.08”
May: 78.4, 48.4, 2.24”
June: 87.4, 57.8, 2.30”
July: 91.4, 62.1, 2.79”
Aug: 89.2, 61.3, 2.85”
Sept: 82.0, 52.8, 1.65”
Oct: 71.1, 40.4, 1.47”
Nov: 59.6, 28.1, 0.58”
Dec: 49.0, 19.8, 0.54”

High and low temps the past week:

Sep 8: 87, 61
Sep 9: 95, 67
Sep 10: 80, 63
Sep 11: 77, 58
Sep 12: 62, 44
Sep 13: 73, 45
Sep 14: 83, 53

Rain helps breaks summer heat

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

This swallowtail butterfly was enjoying the fruits of the recent rains.

August was running hot when rain on the 26th cooled things down a bit. However, it was the weather on Friday, Sept 5, that caused a collective sigh of relief and satisfaction. Indeed, summer's grip on the Texas Panhandle has shown the first signs of giving way. 

Tropical moisture moved in Thursday from - of all places - the Pacific ocean, moving up across the deserts of Mexico towards us. Some light rain fell overnight, but the sky really opened up on Friday. The National Weather Service in Amarillo reports 0.77" of rain fell at the Dalhart airport. Additional reports relayed to the NWS include 1.60" about 4 miles east of Dalhart, and 1.30" inside the city. 

CoCoRahs observers reported 1.28" eight miles northwest of Dalhart and 1.31" in Texline. Texaspivot.com shows 1.60" of rain from a pivot close to Hartley and 2.00" from a pivot north of Channing. Pivots near Middlewater showed 1.40" to 1.60" of rain. Similar rain totals were reported from pivots near Texline, north of Dalhart along Hwy. 385, and along Hwy. 54 heading towards Stratford.  

Previously, Dalhart benefited from another good rain on Aug. 26. The NWS recorded 0.51" of rain at the airport, which brought our total rainfall for August to 0.88". I got 1.20" in my rain gauge on the southeast side of town. CoCoRahs reported 0.69" eight miles northwest of town and 0.93" in Texline. 

As of Sept. 7, we have received 9.41" of precipitation throughout 2014. On average, we usually have 13.77" by Sept. 7, so we are running 4.36" behind, according to stats from the NWS. However, this time last year, we only had 5.02" of precipitation. Thus, 2014 - which in May looked like we were headed towards the worse drought conditions yet - is now wetter than it has been since 2011. 

At the time of posting this blog (Thurs. Sept. 11), more rain was in the forecast - a 70% chance over the next day or so.

Temperatures after the Sept. 5 rain dropped into the upper 70s and stayed there for a couple of days. This is the first time we've seen our daily high in the upper 70s since the end of July - which is not a bad a thing. Although we've had successive days of above 90 degree heat, we have only had 7 days this summer when the temperature topped 100 degrees - the latest being a high of 101 on Aug. 31 and a high of 100 on Sept. 3. August 2014 ended with an average high of 93.6 degrees and an average low of 63. It was, on average, 3 degrees hotter in August compared to the 30 year average. 

High and low temperatures the past two weeks:

Aug 26: 94, 63

Aug 27: 88, 66

Aug 28: 86, 59

Aug 29: 91, 59

Aug 30: 94, 61

Aug 31: 101, 64

Sep 1: 88, 61

Sep 2: 88, 67

Sep 3: 100, 65

Sep 4: 95, 67

Sep 5: 77, 54

Sep 6: 72, 51

Sep 7: 78, 53

More Good News Regarding Drought

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

NOTE: This column originally ran Aug. 26 in "The County Times Two" newsletter and refers to weather during the middle of August. 

Isolated storms, such as the one pictured, have been common
throughout the month of August, bringing rain to some and
leaving others dry. 

Back to school! The opening bell of the 2014/2015 school year came with the promise of yet another sunny and hot day, and possibly, a little rain. Some rain drops fell on the north side of Dalhart Monday afternoon, Aug. 25, while farmland west of town was drenched in rain and pea-size hail. 

Thus it has been for the past two weeks. Our daily high temperature has generally been in the upper 90s. Small, widely scattered rain and thunderstorms slowly roam the Panhandle, bringing rain to some, leaving others dry.

Officially, according to the National Weather Service in Amarillo, Dalhart recorded a trace of rain at the airport on Aug. 14, Aug. 20, and Aug. 22. We picked up 0.04” of rain on Aug. 16, bringing our monthly precipitation total to 0.37”. Unfortunately, we have yet to see a good, organized rain event this month, one that brings significant rainfall over a wide area.  

On the flip side, some of these little storms pack a pretty good punch. A thunderstorm on Friday, Aug. 22, blew over an irrigation pivot northwest of Channing. The storms southwest of town on Monday, Aug. 25, produced hail big enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning. A CoCoRahs observer northwest of Dalhart reported 0.61” of rain on Monday. 

There is some good news regarding the ongoing drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (issued Aug. 21) shows an area from Dalhart to Dumas still in “exceptional” drought - the worst kind. To the east, most of the Texas Panhandle is considered in “severe” drought. However, south of Channing, down to Hereford and points south, the drought has improved and is listed as “moderate”. 

This innocent looking storm was dumping heavy rain and pea-sized hail
along FM 694 west of Dalhart. 

More good news. The Climate Prediction Center (as of Aug. 21) is calling for the drought to “remain but improve” through the end of November for the entire Texas Panhandle. In fact, if the forecast turns out to be correct, a measure of drought relief could be felt as far south as Lubbock, and north up into Kansas and Colorado. 

The CPC is also calling for a 40% chance of seeing above average precipitation for a large area of the southwest, include Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Again, these forecasts are, by nature, for large areas. Hopefully, we will see these educated predictions come true in our little corner of Texas. 

Hopes for an El Niño weather pattern to develop have dimmed a bit, but not all hope is lost. The latest forecast (released Aug. 25) reduced the chances of El Niño developing by fall or early winter to 65%. In general, this weather pattern benefits the Texas Panhandle and could help in relieving the drought. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Aug 12: 93, 60

Aug 13: 96, 61

Aug 14: 96, 67

Aug 15: 96, 63

Aug 16: 86, 64

Aug 17: 98, 61

Aug 18: 99, 64

Aug 19: 97, 58

Aug 20: 99, 67

Aug 21: 98, 69

Aug 22: 99, 67

Aug 23: 96, 67

Aug 24: 97, 60

Aug 25: 98, 67