More Good News Regarding Drought

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

NOTE: This column originally ran Aug. 26 in "The County Times Two" newsletter and refers to weather during the middle of August. 

Isolated storms, such as the one pictured, have been common
throughout the month of August, bringing rain to some and
leaving others dry. 

Back to school! The opening bell of the 2014/2015 school year came with the promise of yet another sunny and hot day, and possibly, a little rain. Some rain drops fell on the north side of Dalhart Monday afternoon, Aug. 25, while farmland west of town was drenched in rain and pea-size hail. 

Thus it has been for the past two weeks. Our daily high temperature has generally been in the upper 90s. Small, widely scattered rain and thunderstorms slowly roam the Panhandle, bringing rain to some, leaving others dry.

Officially, according to the National Weather Service in Amarillo, Dalhart recorded a trace of rain at the airport on Aug. 14, Aug. 20, and Aug. 22. We picked up 0.04” of rain on Aug. 16, bringing our monthly precipitation total to 0.37”. Unfortunately, we have yet to see a good, organized rain event this month, one that brings significant rainfall over a wide area.  

On the flip side, some of these little storms pack a pretty good punch. A thunderstorm on Friday, Aug. 22, blew over an irrigation pivot northwest of Channing. The storms southwest of town on Monday, Aug. 25, produced hail big enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning. A CoCoRahs observer northwest of Dalhart reported 0.61” of rain on Monday. 

There is some good news regarding the ongoing drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (issued Aug. 21) shows an area from Dalhart to Dumas still in “exceptional” drought - the worst kind. To the east, most of the Texas Panhandle is considered in “severe” drought. However, south of Channing, down to Hereford and points south, the drought has improved and is listed as “moderate”. 

This innocent looking storm was dumping heavy rain and pea-sized hail
along FM 694 west of Dalhart. 

More good news. The Climate Prediction Center (as of Aug. 21) is calling for the drought to “remain but improve” through the end of November for the entire Texas Panhandle. In fact, if the forecast turns out to be correct, a measure of drought relief could be felt as far south as Lubbock, and north up into Kansas and Colorado. 

The CPC is also calling for a 40% chance of seeing above average precipitation for a large area of the southwest, include Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Again, these forecasts are, by nature, for large areas. Hopefully, we will see these educated predictions come true in our little corner of Texas. 

Hopes for an El Niño weather pattern to develop have dimmed a bit, but not all hope is lost. The latest forecast (released Aug. 25) reduced the chances of El Niño developing by fall or early winter to 65%. In general, this weather pattern benefits the Texas Panhandle and could help in relieving the drought. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Aug 12: 93, 60

Aug 13: 96, 61

Aug 14: 96, 67

Aug 15: 96, 63

Aug 16: 86, 64

Aug 17: 98, 61

Aug 18: 99, 64

Aug 19: 97, 58

Aug 20: 99, 67

Aug 21: 98, 69

Aug 22: 99, 67

Aug 23: 96, 67

Aug 24: 97, 60

Aug 25: 98, 67