by Aaron Graves
It's that time of month again to check on the progress of the drought. While we are still expected to see above average precipitation over the winter months, long range predictions for drought relief are a bit more muted now compared to the last couple of months.
The upper portion of the Texas panhandle is forecast a 33% chance of seeing above average precipitation and below average temperatures through the end of February 2015, according to the Climate Prediction Center's latest seasonal outlook. However, the CPC is calling for the drought to persist or intensify through the same time period.
Likewise, forecasters at the CPC have dropped expectations of an El Niño weather pattern developing over the winter months to 58%. If it emerges this year, it is likely to be weak. El Niño traditionally brings more rain and snow to the panhandle.
November 2014, which brought Dalhart 1.5" of snow and a record low of 5 degrees, wrapped up with two incredibly beautiful, warm days which broke high temperature records. On Friday, Nov. 28, the high of 82 degrees beat the old record of 80 set way back in 1949. The following day, Nov. 29, the high of 81 beat the old record of 74 set back in 1970.
The last day of the month saw a high of 73. Overall, November had an average high of 59.1 degrees and an average low of 26.3 degrees. This made the month a degree cooler than normal.
December 1 was the official start of "meteorological winter". "Astronomical winter" occurs with the solstice on Sunday, Dec. 21, but colder weather patterns usually precede the change in season by several weeks. Dec. 1 did not disappoint, with a high of only 34 degrees.
There was no rain or snow the past week. November ended with 0.15" of total precipitation, which included 0.08" from the 1.5" of snow back on the 16th. (This is an updated total since last week's article). We fell 0.43" below normal for the month. Since the first of the year, we have had 11.35" of precipitation, the wettest year since the drought began.
Not much has changed on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (issued Nov. 25). Most of Dallam County is considered in "severe drought" while Hartley County is split between "moderate drought" in the west and "severe drought" in the east. There is still a swath of "extreme drought" that extends from Dalhart southeast towards Dumas and beyond.
It is lightly raining as I post this on Thursday, Dec. 4. After today, no rain is in the forecast through Sunday. We will warm back into the mid 50’s to lower 60’s through the weekend. Overnight lows will generally fall into the upper 20’s.
High and low temps the past week
Nov 25: 53, 22
Nov 26: 50, 27
Nov 27: 62, 20
Nov 28: 82, 30
Nov 29: 81, 29
Nov 30: 73, 21
Dec 1: 34, 15
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