Beautiful Summer Now, Wet Winter Possible

Dalhart Weather Review

(June 14 through July 11)

By Aaron Graves

As far as summer goes, it has been nice in the XIT City. In the short term, heavy rain made up for a dry June. In the long run, forecasters are excited about the current El Niño. Previously considered to be a weak pattern, forecasters think it might be one of the strongest El Niño events in 50 years. This could mean a wet winter for the Texas Panhandle. 

More on that below. First, let’s talk rain. Grass was starting to yellow after the clouds dried up the second half of June. The last measurable rainfall in June was on the 18th, with 0.33”. June 2015 ended with only 0.85” of precipitation, about an inch and a half below average. 

However, scattered storms returned to Dallam and Hartley counties early in July. Strong storms on July 8 and 9 brought 2.31” of rain. Thanks to that, our year-to-date precipitation total (as of July 11) is 9.87”, which is 1.20” above normal. 

Since June 14, we have had 17 days with high temperatures at 90 degrees or above. The two hottest days were June 22 with 100 degrees, and July 1 with 101 degrees. June 2015 ended with an average high of  90.6 degrees and an average low of 61.1 degrees. 

A cold front on July 7 pulled down smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, as confirmed by the Amarillo office of the NWS. What looked like a fog that wouldn’t go away on July 8 was a mixture of humid air, cooler temperatures, and smoke.

Severe weather brought large hail to the Channing area on July 8, which was documented by extreme storm chaser and TV personality Reed Timmer. His video on YouTube also shows a funnel cloud and possible tornado from the same storm as it moved southeast of Channing, but the NWS in Amarillo did not find any evidence a tornado touched down, and no damage was reported. You can see his video here.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, dated July 7, showed drought free conditions across the entire Texas Panhandle except for Dallam and Hartley Counties. A pocket of moderate drought continued for the eastern part of Hartley County. The central part of Dallam County was listed as abnormally dry. 

The Climate Prediction Center is calling for our small pocket of drought to disappear sometime between now and the end of September, according to their most recent monthly and seasonal outlooks. In addition, the Texas Panhandle has a 40% chance of seeing above average rainfall through the end of September. Temperatures are expected to be below average for the same time period. 

NOAA experts are calling for a 90% chance that the current El Niño pattern will continue through early next year, and an 80% chance that it will last into early spring 2016. A report by the CPC is calling for “a significant El Niño” and “a strong event”. The report notes: “Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter.” 

El Niño tends to bring wetter conditions to the Texas Panhandle, says the NWS in Amarillo in previously columns. Likewise, articles from Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and USA Today, reporting on the strong El Niño forecast, also mention how the southern half of the U.S. sees more rain. 

These articles, however, go a step further and call this El Niño potentially historic, perhaps stronger than the El Niño of 1997 and 1998. Forecasters are hoping the El Niño will bring drought relief to California. 

In other news, June 2015 enters the record books as the second hottest June nationwide, second only to June 1933. It was also the ninth wettest June in 121 years of record keeping, according to the newly renamed National Centers for Environmental Information.

High and low temps, and rainfall the past month

Jun 14: 85, 57, trace

Jun 15: 84, 61

Jun 16: 84, 57

Jun 17: 90, 58

Jun 18: 97, 60, 0.33”

Jun 19: 90, 59

Jun 20: 96, 65

Jun 21: 98, 65

Jun 22: 100, 63

Jun 23: 92, 66

Jun 24: 93, 62

Jun 25: 97, 64

Jun 26: 89, 66

Jun 27: 89, 62

Jun 28: 99, 65

Jun 29: 93, 65

Jun 30: 96, 60

Jul 1: 101, 59

Jul 2: 93, 69, trace

Jul 3: 95, 63, trace

Jul 4: 96, 62, trace

Jul 5: 97, 67

Jul 6: 89, 67, trace

Jul 7: 78, 62

Jul 8: 86, 57, 2.19”

Jul 9: 87, 62, 0.12”

Jul 10: 91, 64

Jul 11: 93, 66

The Dalhart Divide: or - Who Poked a Hole In My Thunderstorm

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Storm clouds approach from the north. Lightning flashes. Thunder rumbles. Longs streaks of rain are visible just outside of town. The wind kicks up. A blast of cool air hits your face, and you can smell the moisture. You rush to roll your car windows up and herd the kids in from the yard. Five minutes pass. Nothing happens. Another five minutes. Nothing continues to happen. You look out the front door and see..... sunshine.

The "Dalhart Divide" strikes again. That is the new official

The voice of Dalhart, Jesse Torres

name given to the above scenario by KXIT Radio DJ and good friend Jesse Torres. Torres invited listeners to call in and name this phenomenon that seemingly makes a storm fall apart or split in half and completely miss Dalhart. Other names suggested by callers included: the Horseshoe Effect, the Dalhart Jinx, the Da-nana Split, and The Bubble. Dalhart Divide won by popular vote.

I have seen this happen with my own eyes here in Dalhart. Growing up in Lubbock, I noticed that city had its own force field (the Lubbock Limit?) in place when it came to rain. By contrast, when I lived in Canyon, we got nailed every year. Storms would form just outside of town and then dump all manner of cats and dogs on my house. 

It's not hard to notice over time. Some towns appear to get more rain, while other areas miss out. Is that the case here in Dalhart? Is the Dalhart Divide real, or is it an illusion, a trick of the wind? 

This storm north of Dalhart got caught on Uncle Seamore's
barbed wire fence. Actually, Channel 7's Steve Kersh said
it was powerful winds that caused the storm to bow and bend.

Being a bit shy of my Bachelor's of Meteorology degree (I need just four more years of college), I humbly decided to throw this question out to the experts. I conducted a highly scientific survey among my Twitter followers: "Sound off... Do towns and cities cause storms to change path?" An amazing 89.73% of those who responded said "Who are you? Stop tweeting me!" The rest seemed to be in agreement with Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norman, OK. Smith replied: "I say no." 

Other negative responses include Chris Sanner with Tornado Titans ("very unlikely") and @TornadoQuest (an emphatic "No."). Jayson Prentice, a meteorologist in Kansas, had an interesting reply: "Unlikely. But, there have been studies linking cities to storm development." 

Steve Kersh, Chief Meteorologist with Channel 7 in Amarillo, seemed to sum things up. He responded: "Nope. This is a common "old wives' tale." The cities would have zero rain and outside would have all the rain!" 

Kersh makes a good point. It does rain in Dalhart every year or so. For 2015, we have recorded 7.56" of precipitation. In fact, over the past decade, Dalhart has been hit with two blizzards, a skylight smashing hail storm, and one gully washer that uprooted trees and downed power lines. I personally have been rained on so many times during the XIT Rodeo and Reunion I have lost count. 

Still, a highly scientific Twitter survey is not evidence enough to dispel the newly christened Dalhart Divide. So, I consulted with the National Weather Service in Amarillo, the very people who know how the weather works in the Texas Panhandle. "As far as I know," said Mike Gittinger, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, "there is no real proof that the actual town has anything to do with storms changing path." 

Oh well. There goes that theory. After all, Dalhart covers roughly 4.5 square miles. Rita Blanca Lake has less than a quarter square mile surface area. One of the bigger feedlots nearby measures just under a single square mile (Google Earth rocks!). Our tallest buildings in town consist of a grain elevator and a couple of water towers. There's not much here at ground level to scare a thunderstorm away. 

So if it's not the town, what happens when a thunderhead goes out of it's way to not rain on us. The answer has to do with the kind of a storm it is.  

Our typical summer thunderstorm is born from rising columns of hot, moist air. It meanders aimless across the sky, driven by weak, fickle winds in the upper atmosphere. These are typically only 15 miles in diameter and last an average of 30 minutes. A storm that falls apart on final approach to Dalhart has likely reached the end of it's natural life cycle. 

At times, a menacing line of storms will move at us from the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. They form where dry mountain air meets up with moist air coming in from a different direction. "Because winds are more northwesterly higher up in the atmosphere, these storms tend to drift toward the Panhandle and can impact Dalhart," Gittinger explained, and then added, "Because these types of storms are more purely driven by instability and not a storm system, they tend to weaken and dissipate after sunset." 

Additionally, storms in close proximity can and do interfere with each other. A strengthening storm can rob its neighbor of moisture and make it fade away. The rush of air from a dying storm can push a nearby storm off course. Wind, being the invisible force that it is, does not allow us to see these interactions from the ground. We are just left holding a dry umbrella, wondering what happened. 

So, cheer up folks, the experts tell us that Dalhart is not cursed after all. There is not a bubble over us keeping the rain away. The Dalhart Divide, when it strikes, is a function of the atmosphere, the mechanics of storm formation and invisible wind fields. It's not like we have photographic evidence of it raining everywhere but in Dalhart. Oh, wait....

Proof of The Dalhart Divide and The Lubbock Limit