Dalhart Weather Review
(June 14 through July 11)
By Aaron Graves
As far as summer goes, it has been nice in the XIT City. In the short term, heavy rain made up for a dry June. In the long run, forecasters are excited about the current El Niño. Previously considered to be a weak pattern, forecasters think it might be one of the strongest El Niño events in 50 years. This could mean a wet winter for the Texas Panhandle.
More on that below. First, let’s talk rain. Grass was starting to yellow after the clouds dried up the second half of June. The last measurable rainfall in June was on the 18th, with 0.33”. June 2015 ended with only 0.85” of precipitation, about an inch and a half below average.
However, scattered storms returned to Dallam and Hartley counties early in July. Strong storms on July 8 and 9 brought 2.31” of rain. Thanks to that, our year-to-date precipitation total (as of July 11) is 9.87”, which is 1.20” above normal.
Since June 14, we have had 17 days with high temperatures at 90 degrees or above. The two hottest days were June 22 with 100 degrees, and July 1 with 101 degrees. June 2015 ended with an average high of 90.6 degrees and an average low of 61.1 degrees.
A cold front on July 7 pulled down smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, as confirmed by the Amarillo office of the NWS. What looked like a fog that wouldn’t go away on July 8 was a mixture of humid air, cooler temperatures, and smoke.
Severe weather brought large hail to the Channing area on July 8, which was documented by extreme storm chaser and TV personality Reed Timmer. His video on YouTube also shows a funnel cloud and possible tornado from the same storm as it moved southeast of Channing, but the NWS in Amarillo did not find any evidence a tornado touched down, and no damage was reported. You can see his video here.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, dated July 7, showed drought free conditions across the entire Texas Panhandle except for Dallam and Hartley Counties. A pocket of moderate drought continued for the eastern part of Hartley County. The central part of Dallam County was listed as abnormally dry.
The Climate Prediction Center is calling for our small pocket of drought to disappear sometime between now and the end of September, according to their most recent monthly and seasonal outlooks. In addition, the Texas Panhandle has a 40% chance of seeing above average rainfall through the end of September. Temperatures are expected to be below average for the same time period.
NOAA experts are calling for a 90% chance that the current El Niño pattern will continue through early next year, and an 80% chance that it will last into early spring 2016. A report by the CPC is calling for “a significant El Niño” and “a strong event”. The report notes: “Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter.”
El Niño tends to bring wetter conditions to the Texas Panhandle, says the NWS in Amarillo in previously columns. Likewise, articles from Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and USA Today, reporting on the strong El Niño forecast, also mention how the southern half of the U.S. sees more rain.
These articles, however, go a step further and call this El Niño potentially historic, perhaps stronger than the El Niño of 1997 and 1998. Forecasters are hoping the El Niño will bring drought relief to California.
In other news, June 2015 enters the record books as the second hottest June nationwide, second only to June 1933. It was also the ninth wettest June in 121 years of record keeping, according to the newly renamed National Centers for Environmental Information.
High and low temps, and rainfall the past month
Jun 14: 85, 57, trace
Jun 15: 84, 61
Jun 16: 84, 57
Jun 17: 90, 58
Jun 18: 97, 60, 0.33”
Jun 19: 90, 59
Jun 20: 96, 65
Jun 21: 98, 65
Jun 22: 100, 63
Jun 23: 92, 66
Jun 24: 93, 62
Jun 25: 97, 64
Jun 26: 89, 66
Jun 27: 89, 62
Jun 28: 99, 65
Jun 29: 93, 65
Jun 30: 96, 60
Jul 1: 101, 59
Jul 2: 93, 69, trace
Jul 3: 95, 63, trace
Jul 4: 96, 62, trace
Jul 5: 97, 67
Jul 6: 89, 67, trace
Jul 7: 78, 62
Jul 8: 86, 57, 2.19”
Jul 9: 87, 62, 0.12”
Jul 10: 91, 64
Jul 11: 93, 66
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