Second Season Scare Spins Up Seventeen Spinning Cyclones

By Aaron Graves

Not one, not two, but 17 November tornadoes! October and November are known to bring be a second severe weather season in our area, but this year took the cake! As can be seen on the map to the right, there was a total of 17 tornadoes on November 16, two of which were rated EF3.

Dalhart, as usually, was too far west to see any real severe weather, but not by much. We were included in the tornado watch issued by the National Weather Service, and northern Dallam County saw some rain early in the afternoon as storms developed. Late in the evening, a secondary wave of wind and rain blew through, bringing us 0.05" of precipitation, as recorded at the airport.

Pampa tornado lit up by a power flash, from Chris Sanner of TornadoTitans.com

The storms that developed further east were the problem, 
particularly for the Pampa area. Dalhart's junior high basketball teams were in Pampa and had to take shelter from two back-to-back tornadoes. Both of those tornadoes were rated EF3. The first struck over open country but did some damage to trees and power lines. The second tornado came within three miles of Pampa and hit an oil plant.

Sturdy, commercial steel frame buildings were completely leveled at the Haliburton oil plant, according to a damage survey by the NWS. A number of cars were tossed on top of the rubble. A manufactured home south of Pampa was also destroyed.

All of this spring-like severe weather was followed the next day by cold temperatures and snow! We went from a high of 75 degrees on Nov. 16 to a high of 41 on Nov, 17. It snowed - at times quite heavy - in Dalhart, but it didn't stick. However, Texline received 4 inches, Boise City 6 inches, and Clayton was under a blizzard warning. Dalhart received another 0.09" of precipitation from the snow flurries on the 17th.

So what's up with all the wacky weather? Actually, nothing unusually. In spring, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north and interacts with cooler, dry Arctic air. It's this mix that provides the basic set-up for severe weather. Other factors are involved in producing tornadic storms, but as this boundary between hot and cold air masses moves further north over the summer months, so does the general tornado threat. During October and November, as cold air begins to push the warm air back down south, the severe weather threat returns to our area. Thus, a second season of severe weather.

What was unusual was having those extra ingredients in place to spawn tornado producing supercell thunderstorms this far west. That's more of an Oklahoma thing this time of year. However, it's not unheard of. Just last year, residents of Dalhart and Hartley were taking shelter after dark on Oct. 9 from a tornado-warned storm. Also unusual was the intensity of the event. The atmospheric ingredients necessary for two EF3 tornadoes are more common during the spring.

As I post this blog (Wed. Nov. 25), Dalhart is again looking at a chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight, followed by ice and snow over the next few days. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. Just 40 miles away, Dumas is under an Ice Storm Warning. This should make for an interesting blog next week.

Odds 50/50 for Snowier Than Normal Winter

Fall colors in Dalhart will soon give way to snow.

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

We know it's going to snow at some point this winter. We may even have a good guess as to when based on past experience. However, with Dalhart's annual precipitation total 3" above normal, and Amarillo already at its 4th wettest year on record, expectations are running high for this winter's snowfall. Will it be a winter to remember?

The National Weather Service in Amarillo just released their winter outlook for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The big story is the ongoing Strong El Niño weather pattern. Of course, this is not the only thing that affects weather in the Texas Panhandle, but it does have an influence.  "Previous years that share the same strength of this event have shown a more active southerly storm track that may impact the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles," reads the outlook.

The main question is, what does this mean for us over the next few months? In summary, the NWS is calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, including snowfall. However, if a dry spell develops and sticks around for a bit, elevated wildfire conditions may become a problem.

The Climate Prediction Center gives the current El Niño a 95% chance of lasting through February 2016, and an 85% chance that it will still be here in May. Our area has a 50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation over the winter months, according to the CPC.

Why the risk for wildfires? "Plenty of available fuels exist," reads the outlook. After a wet spring and summer, the grass is lush. However, low relative humidity - even during winter - can dry out the grass and make it ripe for burning.

Historically, El Niño events have been good to us in the rain and snow categories. "An assessment of previous strong El Niño events revealed 1 to 2 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal temps, and 20% to 30% above normal precipitation for the Panhandle region," reads the outlook. "7 of the 10 snowiest winters in Amarillo occurred during El Niño events, with 3 of the top 6 occurring during strong events."

Similar strong El Niño were around in 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, and 1997-98. I consulted a rather comprehensive list of rain totals for Dalhart that was updated by Warren Slaughter at Secre-tel a few years ago. Warren used existing local records and data from the NWS for his update. Since then, I have been adding to it with data from the NWS website. Sure enough, the effects of El Niño can be seen here in Dalhart during some of those years.

After a bone dry winter in 1956, over 7" of precipitation was recorded between October 1957 and March 1958. In 1996, our annual precipitation total reached 26.06" - the highest rain total at that point since 1962.

For 2015, Dalhart has received 19.81" of precipitation as of Nov. 9. We haven't seen this much rain and snow since 2004 when we got 22.01". Here's another notable figure. During the recent drought, our precipitation total over a THREE YEAR period (2011, 2012, and 2013) added up to 20.54". We are just 0.73" shy of that total for 2015.

Dalhart Precipitation Total at 19.80"

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

A lot has happened since the last published article, so here are the highlights.

IT'S WET! Dalhart's annual precipitation total stands at 19.80" as of Nov. 3, according to the National Weather Service in Amarillo. That is a good 3" above normal for this time of year. 6.37" of that total has fallen since September 1.

RECORD RAINFALLS: Copious showers throughout October broke two rainfall records for the month. The 1.22" on Oct. 4 was a new record for that day, as was the 1.38" on Oct. 21. We surpassed our monthly average rainfall in October by 4".

DROUGHT HELD AT BAY! After an unusually hot September, drought conditions developed in east Texas and slowly crept their way week after week towards the Texas panhandle. Here in Dalhart, 13 of the first 17 days of September had temperatures at or above 95 degrees. Three high temperature records fell during that period. But then the rains returned and kept the drought from returning to our area. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, dated Oct. 27, shows drought free conditions in the Texas panhandle, while drought conditions have improved in east Texas.

BY THE NUMBERS:
Here are some fun stats for all you weather geeks.

* 5.30" - Dalhart's rain total for October 2015, as recorded at
              the airport and relayed to the NWS in Amarillo.
* 1.47" - Dalhart's 30 year average rainfall for the month of
               October.
* 1.07" - rain total for September. The average for 
              September is 1.65".
* 63.47' - Lake Meredith's depth at the end of October. The
               last time it was that full was October 2005.
* #4 - Amarillo's rain total at the end of October makes it the
          fourth rainiest year on record. (The are at 32.35")


HIGH TEMP RECORDS THAT FELL:

* The high of 99 degrees on Sept. 17 broke the record of 97
   set in 2004.
* The high of 99 on Sept. 13 beat out 98 degrees from 1956.
* The high of 99 on Sept. 7 beat the record of 96 set in 2013.
* The high of 93 on Oct. 14 beat the record of 91 from 1989.

We also tied several record highs on Sept. 14 (101 degrees from 1956), Sept. 15 (97 in 2010), Sept. 16 (97 in 2000), and Oct 11 (93 in 1962).