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| Fall colors in Dalhart will soon give way to snow. |
by Aaron Graves
We know it's going to snow at some point this winter. We may even have a good guess as to when based on past experience. However, with Dalhart's annual precipitation total 3" above normal, and Amarillo already at its 4th wettest year on record, expectations are running high for this winter's snowfall. Will it be a winter to remember?
The National Weather Service in Amarillo just released their winter outlook for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The big story is the ongoing Strong El Niño weather pattern. Of course, this is not the only thing that affects weather in the Texas Panhandle, but it does have an influence. "Previous years that share the same strength of this event have shown a more active southerly storm track that may impact the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles," reads the outlook.
The main question is, what does this mean for us over the next few months? In summary, the NWS is calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, including snowfall. However, if a dry spell develops and sticks around for a bit, elevated wildfire conditions may become a problem.
The Climate Prediction Center gives the current El Niño a 95% chance of lasting through February 2016, and an 85% chance that it will still be here in May. Our area has a 50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation over the winter months, according to the CPC.
Why the risk for wildfires? "Plenty of available fuels exist," reads the outlook. After a wet spring and summer, the grass is lush. However, low relative humidity - even during winter - can dry out the grass and make it ripe for burning.
Historically, El Niño events have been good to us in the rain and snow categories. "An assessment of previous strong El Niño events revealed 1 to 2 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal temps, and 20% to 30% above normal precipitation for the Panhandle region," reads the outlook. "7 of the 10 snowiest winters in Amarillo occurred during El Niño events, with 3 of the top 6 occurring during strong events."
Similar strong El Niño were around in 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, and 1997-98. I consulted a rather comprehensive list of rain totals for Dalhart that was updated by Warren Slaughter at Secre-tel a few years ago. Warren used existing local records and data from the NWS for his update. Since then, I have been adding to it with data from the NWS website. Sure enough, the effects of El Niño can be seen here in Dalhart during some of those years.
After a bone dry winter in 1956, over 7" of precipitation was recorded between October 1957 and March 1958. In 1996, our annual precipitation total reached 26.06" - the highest rain total at that point since 1962.
For 2015, Dalhart has received 19.81" of precipitation as of Nov. 9. We haven't seen this much rain and snow since 2004 when we got 22.01". Here's another notable figure. During the recent drought, our precipitation total over a THREE YEAR period (2011, 2012, and 2013) added up to 20.54". We are just 0.73" shy of that total for 2015.
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