Pattern Change May Halt Drought - Bring Severe Weather

Snow in Dalhart on March 26, quickly melting the next day.

by Aaron Graves

Drought is rearing its ugly head again, as our dry winter has continued into the start of spring. However, the pattern is about to change and we may see, not only rain this weekend, but severe weather, with storms capable of large hail. There is also potential for a stray tornado or two.

A rainy and stormy weekend is in the forecast!

Friday and Saturday look to be worthy of note, with a 60% chance of storms on Friday and a 70% chance on Saturday. Make sure you keep an eye on the sky and have a way to receive weather warnings. More on that below.

(From my experience, I always take note when the NWS and the Storm Prediction Center highlight potential severe weather four or five days ahead of time. They don't do this often, and when they do it shows their confidence in the forecast. Talk of a stormy weekend began yesterday, and so far the forecast hasn't changed. If we still have a 50%+ chance of storms in the forecast come Thursday night, I would be particularly concerned about Friday.)

Severe weather aside, the potential for rainfall is very welcome. Back on March 8, the U.S. Drought Monitor map first declared all of Dallam County and part of Hartley County as "abnormally dry". This area of dryness spread across most of the Texas panhandle throughout the month. The latest map, dated April 5, shows Dallam and Hartley counties in "moderate drought".

We have only seen 0.41" of precipitation since the beginning of the year. On average, we should have 2.50" by April 13. Last year, we had already received 3.39".

The last time we saw any moisture was a surprisingly fun snow storm back on March 26. I measured 7" at my house, which fell over a 6 hour period. Glancing through social media, other areas of Dalhart got 5" or more. It had all melted away by the next evening.

The NWS says the snow equaled 0.16" of rainfall. It was our only measurable precipitation in March, and the first since a mere 0.05" on February 3.

But maybe it will all change this weekend. The Amarillo NWS is calling for a POSSIBLE 2.5" of total rainfall around Dalhart between Friday and Monday, with lesser amounts to the west and higher amounts to the east. See the graphic posted above.

With severe weather a possibility, make sure you have a way of receiving severe weather warnings. If you have a smart phone, there are numerous apps that will alert you - including apps from the Amarillo TV Stations. Likewise, make sure your smartphone is set to receive the WEA Emergency Alerts - which will go off if Dalhart is threatened by a tornado. You can also sign up for e-mail and text message alerts from www.r2beready.com, a free service from the Panhandle Area Regional Information System.

Likewise, think now about what you will do on Friday if a tornado or hail storm is headed your way. Do you know where to seek shelter at school, work, home or in the car? Make a plan today, don't wait until the last minute.

I plan on updating this blog tomorrow and Friday to keep track of the forecast. I will also talk more about weather warning apps and staying safe.