XIT Weather: Hot, Cool, and Wet

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

When it comes time for half the world to descend on Dalhart and celebrate the XIT Rodeo and Reunion with us, casually predicting the weather is almost a flip of the coin. On one side, it is summer and it can be unbelievably hot. On the flip side, August is traditionally a wet month, so it could literally rain on our parade (or rodeo… or free food… or mud bog…) 

The storm after it had moved over the rodeo arena.

This year, we got to see both sides of the coin. Thursday, Aug. 7, was hot, with a high of 100 degrees (only the fifth time this year to hit the century mark). But then it cooled down into the 80’s on Friday. This was followed by a beautiful storm during the final rodeo performance on Saturday, Aug. 9. 

I was not at the rodeo arena, but I was parked along the lake road (FM 281) watching the storm roll in. There was lightning, pea-sized hail, and, at times, heavy rain. I followed the storm as moved south. Traffic along Hwy. 87 near County Road C was temporarily brought to a stand still due to low visibility as the storm crossed the highway.

One rodeo attendee told me the rain briefly interrupted the performance. Some in the audience left, but others stuck it out. After it became clear the storm was moving away, the rodeo resumed. 

Robin Scott, publisher of "The County Times Two" newsletter that graciously includes this blog, told me over e-mail: "I was taking tickets at the rodeo for Rotary and I'm pretty sure I've never been that soaked by rain before in my life....it was a blast!!!"

Officially, we ended up with 0.15” of rain, as recorded at the airport and relayed to the National Weather Service in Amarillo. However, Texaspivot.com shows about a half inch of rain fell near FM 281 where I was initially parked. And the blinding downpour at County Road C? A nearby pivot picked up 1.25” of rain. 

The NWS recorded an additional 0.04” of rain on Aug. 10. On Aug. 5, we received 0.14” from some late evening storms. This brings our monthly total to 0.33”. 

The CoCoRaHS volunteer network reports Texline received 0.35” of rain on Aug. 5, 0.05” on Aug. 9, and a healthy 0.96” on Aug. 10. Along South Sedan Road, about 8 miles NW of Dalhart, 0.44” of rain fell Aug. 6 and 0.02” on Aug. 7. 

Texaspivot.com reports the Hartley area saw about a quarter inch of rain over the past week. Western Hartley County saw rain totals between 1.5” and 3” - most of it from the Aug. 9 storm. 

Always remember, if a storm is moving away, and the
sun is sinking low, stay outside to see the rainbow. 

Thus ends another wonderful and fun XIT celebration. I always joke it rains during XIT - mainly because I have been rained on a couple of times myself during some events. But rain is always welcome in these parts. And, I wonder - if we hosted a rodeo every weekend in August - would it rain every weekend? Scientists may have to consider this as a possible way of breaking the drought.

High and low temps the past week

Aug 5: 92, 64

Aug 6: 96, 60

Aug 7: 100, 6

Aug 8: 88, 67

Aug 9: 96, 58

Aug 10: 90, 65

Aug 11: 86, 63

More Drought Relief Expected Through August

Dalhart Weather Review 

By Aaron Graves

Although we haven’t had near enough rain to break the drought, the 2.15” of precipitation we received in July was refreshing and most welcome! In fact, it came close to our 30 year normal of 2.74” for July. At the end of month, we had 7.76” for the year, still behind the 10.50” we normal have by July 31. 

However, more rain is expected. The Climate Prediction Center’s August forecast is looking good. We have a 40% chance of seeing above average rainfall this month. In case your wondering, the 30 year average rainfall for Dalhart in August is 2.85”. Over the next three months, we have a 33% chance of above average rainfall. 

Likewise, the CPC is calling for drought conditions to improve for all of the Texas Panhandle through the end of August. However, the three month outlook shows drought conditions intensifying for the western Panhandle by the end of October 

Of course, the CPC forecasts for large areas of the country, not for local events. Thus, saying that August looks wet for the Texas Panhandle does not necessarily mean August will be wet for Dallam and Hartley counties. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor map released July 29 shows the worst of the drought extending from Dalhart to Stratford to Dumas. The western parts of Dallam and Hartley Counties are considered in severe drought. 

NOAA forecasters are still expecting an El Niño weather pattern to develop, although the El Niño webpage now says: “NOAA's National Weather Service indicates El Niño is likely to emerge in next few months. Forecasters favor a weak-to-moderate event.” This is not bad news, although a strong El Niño would give us a better chance at drought relief ~ as I have come to understand it. 

July 2014 ended with an average high of 90.2 degrees and an average low of 63.6 degrees - not bad for the middle of summer. For the XIT weekend, look for high temperatures in the mid 90s with a 20% chances of thunderstorms continuing through Monday. Stay cool, stay hydrated, and don’t forget to wear your sunscreen. 

CLOSE CALL: As previously reported, a supercell thunderstorm produced three weak, short-lived tornadoes near Stratford and Cactus back on July 16. Since then, the National Weather Service in Amarillo has released more details. The first tornado was reported 0.2 miles northeast of Stratford, the second was 0.2 miles south of Stratford, and the third was 0.5 miles southwest of Cactus. That’s pretty close. Just a reminder of the need to stay aware and informed about severe weather even during a drought.  

High and low temps the past week:

Jul 29: 82, 65

Jul 30: 77, 63

Jul 31: 80, 57

Aug 1: 84, 65

Aug 2: 87, 63

Aug 3: 88, 59

Aug 4: 92, 59

Rain Continues

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

Another favorable weather pattern has arrived, already bringing up to 3 inches of rain in Dallam County. Rain continues in the forecast today through Saturday. 

It began raining Sunday evening as thunderstorms developed in western Hartley County and just seemed to sit in one place. Similar slow moving storms developed over Dalhart after midnight. Officially, 1.01” was recorded at the airport and relayed to the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service. This brings our July precipitation total up to 2.15”. Our year to date total is 7.76”. 

My rain gauge on the southeast side of Dalhart captured 1.84” from Monday’s storms. CoCoRaHS observers reported 0.95” in Texline and 0.79” along South Sedan Road. Texaspivot.com shows farmland just north of Dalhart along Hwy 385 got up to 3” of rain. Pivots near Texline recorded about 1.25”. The Hartley area generally saw about 0.50” from the storms. 

As of the writing of this article (Tuesday afternoon) Dalhart was forecast for more heavy rain. 

Before the rainy weather, it was hot! We hit a high of 105 degrees on July 25 and 104 on July 26. However, that makes only four days this year we have been 100 degrees or hotter.  We dropped down to a high of 77 degrees on July 28 after the storms rolled in. 

High and low temps the past week

July 22: 94, 66

July 23: 96, 65

July 24: 99, 63

July 25: 105, 71

July 26: 104, 68

July 27: 91, 68

July 28: 77, 58

Look Before You Lock!

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Temperatures across the Texas panhandle are forecast to reach the upper HOT! Although a 100 degree day is survivable, temperatures inside a parked automobile can be deadly, especially for children. A child dies from heatstroke about once every 10 days as a result of being left alone in a hot vehicle, according to the National Weather Service. 
90's to over 100 for the rest of this week. In other words: 

"Look Before You Lock!" is the slogan making the rounds to remind drivers to remove their children from the car, even if running a quick errand inside a building. Why? The following answers were found on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's website www.safercar.gov.

Never leave a child alone in a parked car, even with the windows rolled down, or air conditioning on. Children’s body temperature can heat up 3 to 5 times faster than adults. 

Heatstroke can occur in temperatures as low as 57 degrees. On an 80-degree day, temperatures inside a vehicle can reach deadly levels in just 10 minutes. It does not matter if the sky is cloudy or clear. 

Place an item that you keep on you, like a briefcase or purse, in the back seat next to the car seat, so that you’ll always check the back seat before you leave the car. 

Of the 606 children who died between 1998 and 2013 in hot cars, 29% of those gained access to the car by themselves and became trapped. Therefore, always lock your vehicle doors and trunk and keep the keys out of a child’s reach. Teach them a vehicle is not a play area. If a child is missing, quickly check all vehicles, including the trunk. 

***

In other weather news: three tornadoes were reported in the neighborhood last week. Two tornadoes occurred near Stratford and a third near Cactus on Wednesday, July 16. Both were rated EF-0 by the National Weather Service in Amarillo. Utility lines and a small outbuilding near Highway 287 were damaged by the second tornado, and corn stalks suffered the brunt of the one near Cactus. 

The city of Dalhart missed out on the all the excitement - and the rain - on Wednesday. However, Dalhart did enjoy rain on Monday, July 21, as a line of storms rolled through. A total of 0.16" was recorded at the airport by the NWS. We now have 1.14" of precipitation for the month. 

Farmland east of Dalhart and Hartley received up to an inch or more of rain on July 16th, according to Texaspivot.com. Monday's storm brought around 0.75" to farmland west of Dalhart between Highway 87 and Highway 54. 

High and low temps the past week:

July 15: 81, 64

July 16: 88, 61

July 17: 75, 61

July 18: 86, 61

July 19: 93, 63

July 20: 97, 64

July 21: 100, 68

It's just the light playing tricks

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Note: This article was written Tuesday July 15 and does not discuss the July 16 tornadic storm near Stratford. I will update the blog when more information is available. 

Screen grab from iPad video of
Monday's thunderstorm. 

Dalhart can boast another 0.89" of rain after a Monday afternoon thunderstorm brought heavy rain and some hail to the two counties. This raises our official precipitation total for July, as recorded at the airport, to 0.98". For the year, Dalhart stands at 6.59".

Winds up to 60 mph and pea-size hail was reported in Dalhart. A grain elevator and silo outside of Texline received wind damage. CoCoRaHS observers reported 0.28" in Texline and 0.71" along South Sedan Road northwest of Dalhart.

Texaspivot.com shows southwestern Dallam County and northwestern Hartley County received the most rain, with automatic rain gauges reporting anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75". The core of the storm dumped over 2" on several reporting stations west of town. Rain totals tapered off to 0.10" or less east of Dalhart and in the Hartley area. 

Rain continues in the forecast through Friday. Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid 80's through Friday before returning to the 90's this weekend. 

Since I commenced "cloud chasing" a few years ago, I have seen many a beautiful site in this corner of the Panhandle. Amazing sunsets, breathtaking rainbows, spectacular displays of lightning, and more. There have been a couple of times, however, when I saw something I never expected to see. 

Like, say, a rainbow at midnight. Or how about a desert-like mirage in freezing weather?

Using time exposure, a faint, white "moonbow" shows
up as a regular looking rainbow. We spotted this Sunday
evening around midnight north of Dalhart. 

A full moon can reflect enough sunlight that it creates a faint rainbow when a storm is nearby. To the human eye, the "moonbow" usually appears faint and white. Using time exposure photography, however, all the colors of the rainbow are present. Such was the case Sunday night just north of Dalhart as a small rain shower moved by.

To see a moonbow, you need the moon to be close to its brightest phase - a full moon. In addition, it must be low in the sky, and the sky must be very dark. Thus, moonbows are not likely to appear until two to three hours after the sun sets.  Finally, you need rain on the opposite side of the sky. Seeing a moonbow is a rare event. 

We have all seen a mirage created on a hot day. For example, when traveling, the road on the horizon seems detached and wavy. A mirage is basically light rays that are being bent and creating a false image in the atmosphere. 

What bends the light? Cold air is more dense than warm air. If you have a significant enough difference between the two, it will bend the light similar to the way a glass of water distorts a straw stuck in it. This can happen on a hot day, or a cold day.

This cool mirage was created on a
freezing December morning last
year. Mirages are possible during
hot and cold weather if conditions
are right. 

A "superior mirage" occurs when air below your line of sight is colder than the air above it. Light rays are bent upward, so items below the horizon can be seen above it. Such was the case in Dalhart a couple of times last December. On December 15, 2013, a line of clouds on the western horizon served as a backdrop to the mirage. Reflecting the color of the ground, this line of clouds looked like a small mountain range. Here and there, grain silos, barns, and sprinkler systems were being reflected up into the air. 

Those are just two examples of the fascinating things that you can see and learn about in the creation around us.

High and low temperatures the past week:

July 8: 85, 60

July 9: 96, 62

July 10: 97, 64

July 11: 95, 65

July 12: 93, 65

July 13: 89, 66

July 14: 93, 65

Volunteers Wanted To Report Rain And Snow Totals

Dalhart Weather Review 

By Aaron Graves

Graphic by Amarillo NWS

Dalhart’s 2014 precipitation total is up to 5.70” thanks to 0.09” of rain on July 2. We are still lagging behind the 30 year average of 8.27” we should have as of July 6. However, Dalhart has gone from being bone dry to enjoying the wettest summer we have seen over the last 4 years, according to the accompanying graphic released by the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service.

The graphic shows accumulated precipitation totals since the beginning of the year through July 6. You can see how 2014 is now a good two inches ahead of 2012, almost four inches ahead of 2013, and five inches ahead of 2011, that first, hot, painful year of the drought. 

Only time will tell if the wet pattern will continue. Heavy rain forecast last week did not pan out as expected. However, rain chances for next week are looking better, along with a cool down in temperatures. 

Our rainy weather at the end of June barley put a dent in the U.S. Drought Monitor issued July 1. Dallam and Hartley counties still are depicted as being in “extreme” and “exceptional” drought. 

On the subject of rain, Dallam and Hartley County residents have a chance to make a significant contribution to science. Volunteers are needed to make daily rain and snow total reports. It will only cost you about $30 for a special rain gauge and only about 5 minutes of your time each day. 

The program is called CoCoRaHS, an acronym for “Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network.” According to the group’s website, they are “a unique, non-profit, community-based network of volunteers of all ages.” Data collected by these volunteers is used by the National Weather Service, hydrologists, emergency managers, city utilities departments, insurance adjusters, the USDA, engineers, farmers, and ranchers, just to name a few. 

Dallam County resident Lynn Harruff has been a volunteer for over a decade. He started by reporting rain totals directly to the National Weather Service, and then was directed to the CoCoRaHS program. 

“It takes very little time out of my day,” Harruff said. “All I’ve got to do is walk out to the gauge at the same time every day, read it and empty it. Then I report the results using a phone app.” 

Along with Harruff , there are two other CoCoRaHS volunteers in Dallam County and one in Hartley County. “I want to get more people to join,” Harruff said, who lives rain 8 miles northwest of town on South Sedan Rd. “What I get out here is not the same as what you get in town, and certainly not the same as what you get in Conlon or at the state line or down in Channing. The more reports we get, the better.”

That sentiment is echoed by Andrew Moulton, meteorologist with the Amarillo NWS. “We will use the reports for drought impact,” Moulton said. “Especially up near Dalhart, being sparsely populated, it will help with drought assessments, establishing climatology normals, and drawing up average precipitation maps.” Moulton went on to point out how the data grows in usefulness the longer a volunteer stays with the program.

If you are interested in becoming a volunteer, visit this website: www.cocorahs.org. The website explains all that is involved and offers training on how to take accurate rain and snow totals. It also will link you to online stores that sale the appropriate rain gauge. 

 High and low temps the past week

July 1: 81, 64

July 2: 77, 61

July 3: 85, 61

July 4: 91, 65

July 5: 95, 62

July 6: 97, 63

July 7: 97, 64

Long Range Outlook Signals Possible Drought Relief

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

The Climate Predication Center is calling for drought conditions in the Texas Panhandle to improve through the end of September. This is good news ~ backed up by almost four inches of rain over the past 30 days! 

The CPC's U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook, issued June 30, forecasts the drought to persist in our area through the end of July. However, the three month Seasonal Outlook, issued June 19, calls for improvement by the end of September. Likewise, the one month and three month precipitation outlooks give us a 1 in 3 chance of receiving above average precipitation.

In addition, talk of an upcoming El Niño weather pattern continues. If El Niño develops, it improves our chances of seeing an above average wet winter and spring. The latest El Niño outlook, released June 30, gives us a 70% chance of El Niño developing during the summer months and an 80% chance of El Niño forming by fall or winter. 

Meanwhile, June 2014 sure did a lot to lift the spirit and green the lawn! We started the month with only 1.84” of precipitation for the whole year, as recorded at the Dalhart airport and reported to the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service. We picked up an additional 3.77” of rain over the past 30 days, giving us 5.61” as of July 1. 

Rain fell almost daily from June 22 through June 25 for a total of 1.82". The bulk of that was due to an impressive thunderstorm that woke the town after midnight on June 25. 

Rain returned to the area Monday, June 30. The main group of severe storms missed the city of Dalhart, but farmland in northeastern Dallam County generally picked up between 0.25” and 0.75”, according toTexaspivot.com. The Hartley area saw about 0.25” Monday evening. The storms generated strong winds and a rolling dust cloud that went through Dalhart right after sunset. A peak wind gust of 75 mph was reported to the NWS. Elsewhere, more than 100 power poles where blown down across the Oklahoma Panhandle from the same storm system. 

More rain was expected yesterday, and rain chances continue in the forecast through Thursday. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map for June 24 (issued June 26) shows some improvement for the Texas Panhandle compared to the end of May. However, most of Hartley County is still considered in "extreme" drought. Most of Dallam County is considered in "exceptional" drought - the worst on the scale. This map, however, does not account for all the rain received last week. It will be interesting to see if there is any additional improvement when the updated Drought Monitor is released. 

Summer is definitely underway as our high temperatures for the past two weeks have been in the upper 80’s to upper 90’s. Our hottest day was Monday, with a high of 100. Temperatures will be cooler today thanks to the recent storms. Expect highs in the 80’s today and tomorrow, warming up into the low 90’s by the weekend. 

In other weather news, a total of six tornadoes were produced by a single supercell thunderstorm that moved out of the Oklahoma Panhandle towards Canadian, Texas on June 22. Four of the tornadoes were rated EF-0, and two, including one near Canadian, were rated EF-1. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Jun 17: 96, 62

Jun 18: 94, 69

Jun 19: 86, 60

Jun 20: 90, 58

Jun 21: 90, 61

Jun 22: 93, 63

Jun 23: 86, 59

Jun 24: 88, 61

Jun 25: 87, 57

Jun 26: 91, 59

Jun 27: 94, 70

Jun 28: 91, 61

Jun 29: 98, 62

Jun 30: 100, 68