Drought conditions likely to stay away for awhile

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

Is the drought really gone, or will it return? That's the "million dollar question" I asked Nicholas Fenner at the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. Since a lot credit went to an El Niño weather pattern for breaking our drought, what is going to happen once it fades away? Will our local weather patterns return to normal, or slip back into drought?

The short answer? Thanks to all the precipitation we saw in 2015, along with what could be a wetter-than-normal spring, we should be in good shape for awhile.

We enjoyed a wonderfully wet 2015, with 21.37" of precipitation as recorded at the Dalhart airport. That was 3.78" above normal and our 11th wettest year on record. No surprise, then, that our four year severe drought came to a sudden, soggy end.

The drought relief was area-wide. "Most locations in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles received between 150%-200% of normal precipitation by year’s end," reads the 2015 Weather Year in Review posted on the Amarillo NWS website. "Precipitation totals comparable to this year had not been seen since the 1960’s. Amarillo reached its 4th wettest year on record. Other locations including Borger, Pampa, and Lipscomb experienced their wettest year on record. Beneficial rainfall during the year finally pushed Lake Meredith back above 25% capacity (first time since 2006) and Greenbelt above 23% capacity."

El Niño refers to warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which helps to alter weather patterns across the United States. The current El Niño is one of the strongest on record. The Amarillo NWS report continues: "This oceanic and atmospheric pattern helped direct many notable weather systems across the Panhandles [in 2015] including a January snowstorm that brought 12 inches of snow to Amarillo, record-setting rainfall in May, river and playa lake flooding throughout the summer, a rare November tornado outbreak, and a Thanksgiving weekend ice storm that halted holiday travel for many."

But then things dried up. Now, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows abnormally dry conditions in and around Boise City, Oklahoma, just 40 minutes north of us. Why?

El Niño isn't the final authority on who gets rain or not. "Since El Niño represents only a piece of the overall climate puzzle, shorter term climate patterns were likely behind the unusual pattern in January and February," Fenner said. He then put our dry winter into context. Even though Dalhart received 0.80" of precipitation from December 2015 through February 2016, he noted it was still wetter than 25 other years since 1949. "So, nothing at drought level yet," he said.

Fenner continued: "El Niño patterns typically influence

weather through the spring time when they are on the decline, so we can still expect better chances for above normal precipitation through the rest of the spring. It will only take a pattern change to see a southern shift of the jet stream again." Fenner's optimism is backed up by the the Climate Prediction Center, which is calling for a 50% chance of above normal precipitation for New Mexico and most of the Texas Panhandle through the end of May. In addition, the CPC seasonal drought outlook gives us the all clear over the next three months.

Still, the current El Niño is weakening. Will this allow the drought to return? "That's the million dollar question," Fenner answered. He noted that we are in a much better position with sufficient soil moisture to handle most short term dry patterns, such as what we saw over the past few months. Barring a prolonged hot and dry period, we should be in good shape. If we do get above average rainfall this spring, all the better.

The first week of March was mild and quiet, with highs generally in the 70's. This pattern is forecast to continue through the weekend. Keep in mind that windy, dry days give rise to wildfire dangers. Dallam and Hartley counties are currently under burn bans.

The NWS will hold storm spotter training at the fire department on Monday, March 14, at 6 p.m. It is free and open to the public. More on that in a special blog post coming soon.

Isn't It Suppose To Snow During Winter?

Dalhart Weather Review 

Dalhart Sunset from the end of February

by Aaron Graves

It is the beginning of March, and spring is just around the corner. The Dalhart Weather Review has emerged from its winter hibernation in expectation of all the wonderful days ahead of us. Warm temperatures, green grass, children laughing at the park, colorful flowers, the smell of rain in the air, and the rumble of thunder at night are some of the sights and sounds that make this time of year so special. 

As we begin our March towards spring - pun intended - one big question hangs in the air like dust from the local feed yards: will the drought return? I don't ask this to create unnecessary drama for what is basically a weather blog written during a prolonged period of nice, sunny weather. After four years of extreme drought conditions, it is widely thought that our drought relief was due to the El Niño weather pattern. What happens, though, when the El Niño goes away? Will our local weather return to normal, or will it swing back towards drought?

That is a question that I will attempt to...... no, actually, it is a question I will ask some people who know a lot more about weather and climate than I do. I will let them answer that question in next week's blog.

For now let's look back on what has happened over the past few months. Dalhart finished 2015 with a grand total of 21.23" of precipitation. We picked up 1.02" in November and 0.55" in December to round out the year. Some of that came in the form of ice and snow, with the biggest snowfall on December 27. We typically see a big snowstorm late December, but this one tracked further south leaving us with only 1.5" here in Dalhart.

Likewise, January and February did not bring any big storms. Dalhart has an underwhelming grand total of 2.5" of measurable snowfall for the winter of 2015/2016. On average, we should have in the neighborhood of 13" by March 1.

January and February are typically dry months for Dalhart. Our overall precipitation total since January 1 is a quarter inch. That puts us 0.67" behind normal for this time of year. 

Was El Niño to blame for our warm and dry winter? Or is the drought hiding behind a big pile of tumbleweeds waiting for El  Niño to go on his merry way before pouncing on us again? We'll get the experts to weigh in on those questions next week.

Until then expect sunny and dry weather through this weekend, with high temperatures fluctuating between the mid 60's and the upper 70's.

Weather Stats For The Last 4 Months

Avg. High - Avg. Low - Precip -  Snowfall

Nov 2015: 62.1 - 30.1 - 1.02" - 0.5"

Dec 2015: 52.9 - 25.2 - 0.55" - 1.5 "

Jan 2016: 52.7 - 21.5 - 0.11" - Trace

Feb 2016: 62.3 - 27.0 - 0.14" - 0.5 "

Second Season Scare Spins Up Seventeen Spinning Cyclones

By Aaron Graves

Not one, not two, but 17 November tornadoes! October and November are known to bring be a second severe weather season in our area, but this year took the cake! As can be seen on the map to the right, there was a total of 17 tornadoes on November 16, two of which were rated EF3.

Dalhart, as usually, was too far west to see any real severe weather, but not by much. We were included in the tornado watch issued by the National Weather Service, and northern Dallam County saw some rain early in the afternoon as storms developed. Late in the evening, a secondary wave of wind and rain blew through, bringing us 0.05" of precipitation, as recorded at the airport.

Pampa tornado lit up by a power flash, from Chris Sanner of TornadoTitans.com

The storms that developed further east were the problem, 
particularly for the Pampa area. Dalhart's junior high basketball teams were in Pampa and had to take shelter from two back-to-back tornadoes. Both of those tornadoes were rated EF3. The first struck over open country but did some damage to trees and power lines. The second tornado came within three miles of Pampa and hit an oil plant.

Sturdy, commercial steel frame buildings were completely leveled at the Haliburton oil plant, according to a damage survey by the NWS. A number of cars were tossed on top of the rubble. A manufactured home south of Pampa was also destroyed.

All of this spring-like severe weather was followed the next day by cold temperatures and snow! We went from a high of 75 degrees on Nov. 16 to a high of 41 on Nov, 17. It snowed - at times quite heavy - in Dalhart, but it didn't stick. However, Texline received 4 inches, Boise City 6 inches, and Clayton was under a blizzard warning. Dalhart received another 0.09" of precipitation from the snow flurries on the 17th.

So what's up with all the wacky weather? Actually, nothing unusually. In spring, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north and interacts with cooler, dry Arctic air. It's this mix that provides the basic set-up for severe weather. Other factors are involved in producing tornadic storms, but as this boundary between hot and cold air masses moves further north over the summer months, so does the general tornado threat. During October and November, as cold air begins to push the warm air back down south, the severe weather threat returns to our area. Thus, a second season of severe weather.

What was unusual was having those extra ingredients in place to spawn tornado producing supercell thunderstorms this far west. That's more of an Oklahoma thing this time of year. However, it's not unheard of. Just last year, residents of Dalhart and Hartley were taking shelter after dark on Oct. 9 from a tornado-warned storm. Also unusual was the intensity of the event. The atmospheric ingredients necessary for two EF3 tornadoes are more common during the spring.

As I post this blog (Wed. Nov. 25), Dalhart is again looking at a chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight, followed by ice and snow over the next few days. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. Just 40 miles away, Dumas is under an Ice Storm Warning. This should make for an interesting blog next week.

Odds 50/50 for Snowier Than Normal Winter

Fall colors in Dalhart will soon give way to snow.

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

We know it's going to snow at some point this winter. We may even have a good guess as to when based on past experience. However, with Dalhart's annual precipitation total 3" above normal, and Amarillo already at its 4th wettest year on record, expectations are running high for this winter's snowfall. Will it be a winter to remember?

The National Weather Service in Amarillo just released their winter outlook for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The big story is the ongoing Strong El Niño weather pattern. Of course, this is not the only thing that affects weather in the Texas Panhandle, but it does have an influence.  "Previous years that share the same strength of this event have shown a more active southerly storm track that may impact the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles," reads the outlook.

The main question is, what does this mean for us over the next few months? In summary, the NWS is calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, including snowfall. However, if a dry spell develops and sticks around for a bit, elevated wildfire conditions may become a problem.

The Climate Prediction Center gives the current El Niño a 95% chance of lasting through February 2016, and an 85% chance that it will still be here in May. Our area has a 50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation over the winter months, according to the CPC.

Why the risk for wildfires? "Plenty of available fuels exist," reads the outlook. After a wet spring and summer, the grass is lush. However, low relative humidity - even during winter - can dry out the grass and make it ripe for burning.

Historically, El Niño events have been good to us in the rain and snow categories. "An assessment of previous strong El Niño events revealed 1 to 2 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal temps, and 20% to 30% above normal precipitation for the Panhandle region," reads the outlook. "7 of the 10 snowiest winters in Amarillo occurred during El Niño events, with 3 of the top 6 occurring during strong events."

Similar strong El Niño were around in 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, and 1997-98. I consulted a rather comprehensive list of rain totals for Dalhart that was updated by Warren Slaughter at Secre-tel a few years ago. Warren used existing local records and data from the NWS for his update. Since then, I have been adding to it with data from the NWS website. Sure enough, the effects of El Niño can be seen here in Dalhart during some of those years.

After a bone dry winter in 1956, over 7" of precipitation was recorded between October 1957 and March 1958. In 1996, our annual precipitation total reached 26.06" - the highest rain total at that point since 1962.

For 2015, Dalhart has received 19.81" of precipitation as of Nov. 9. We haven't seen this much rain and snow since 2004 when we got 22.01". Here's another notable figure. During the recent drought, our precipitation total over a THREE YEAR period (2011, 2012, and 2013) added up to 20.54". We are just 0.73" shy of that total for 2015.

Dalhart Precipitation Total at 19.80"

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

A lot has happened since the last published article, so here are the highlights.

IT'S WET! Dalhart's annual precipitation total stands at 19.80" as of Nov. 3, according to the National Weather Service in Amarillo. That is a good 3" above normal for this time of year. 6.37" of that total has fallen since September 1.

RECORD RAINFALLS: Copious showers throughout October broke two rainfall records for the month. The 1.22" on Oct. 4 was a new record for that day, as was the 1.38" on Oct. 21. We surpassed our monthly average rainfall in October by 4".

DROUGHT HELD AT BAY! After an unusually hot September, drought conditions developed in east Texas and slowly crept their way week after week towards the Texas panhandle. Here in Dalhart, 13 of the first 17 days of September had temperatures at or above 95 degrees. Three high temperature records fell during that period. But then the rains returned and kept the drought from returning to our area. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, dated Oct. 27, shows drought free conditions in the Texas panhandle, while drought conditions have improved in east Texas.

BY THE NUMBERS:
Here are some fun stats for all you weather geeks.

* 5.30" - Dalhart's rain total for October 2015, as recorded at
              the airport and relayed to the NWS in Amarillo.
* 1.47" - Dalhart's 30 year average rainfall for the month of
               October.
* 1.07" - rain total for September. The average for 
              September is 1.65".
* 63.47' - Lake Meredith's depth at the end of October. The
               last time it was that full was October 2005.
* #4 - Amarillo's rain total at the end of October makes it the
          fourth rainiest year on record. (The are at 32.35")


HIGH TEMP RECORDS THAT FELL:

* The high of 99 degrees on Sept. 17 broke the record of 97
   set in 2004.
* The high of 99 on Sept. 13 beat out 98 degrees from 1956.
* The high of 99 on Sept. 7 beat the record of 96 set in 2013.
* The high of 93 on Oct. 14 beat the record of 91 from 1989.

We also tied several record highs on Sept. 14 (101 degrees from 1956), Sept. 15 (97 in 2010), Sept. 16 (97 in 2000), and Oct 11 (93 in 1962). 

Fall Begins

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

The official start of fall (the autumn equinox) is set for Wednesday, Sept. 23. However, for weather enthusiasts, fall has already begun. It is called "meteorological fall" and it began yesterday. Summer begins to lose its grip around Sept. 1 which means milder days are in store on a normal year. But this is not a normal year. 



It is an El Niño year! Already, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for above average precipitation and below average temperatures for the Texas Panhandle through the end of November. 

So, how did the last few weeks of summer go here in Dalhart? We ended the month of August with 1.72" of precipitation as recorded at the airport. This was a good inch below normal. The only big rain event was on Aug. 17 and 18. That brought us 0.43". As of August 31, we have seen 13.43" of precipitation for the year, which is normal for this time of year. At this time last year, we had only seen 8.64", so enjoy!

Daily high temperatures have generally been in the upper 80's and low 90's since Aug. 11.  Of note was the new high temperature record we set on Aug. 22 - 101 degrees - which beat out the old record of 99 set just last year. The very next day, our high temperature maxed out at a refreshing 78 degrees. August 2015 ended with an average high of 91.2 degrees and an average low of 63.3 degrees.

Things are looking good for the Texas Panhandle throughout the end of November. As mentioned above, the Climate Prediction Center forecast a 40% chance of above average precipitation and a 33% chance of below average temperatures over the next three months. The Panhandle is still drought free according to the latest U.S. Drought Montitor map, although dry conditions have returned to eastern Texas. However, the CPC is not expecting the drought to dig in over there, calling for it to disappear over the next three months. 

High and low temps, and rainfall, past few weeks

Aug 11: 87, 66, 0.08"
Aug 12: 94, 67
Aug 13: 96, 67
Aug 14: 90, 71
Aug 15: 92, 65
Aug 16: 93, 67
Aug 17: 87, 63, 0.41"
Aug 18: 84, 64, 0.02"
Aug 19: 74, 58, trace
Aug 20: 83, 52
Aug 21: 90, 60
Aug 22: 101, 60
Aug 23: 78, 63
Aug 24: 90, 56
Aug 25: 94, 58
Aug 26: 96, 60
Aug 27: 96, 65
Aug 28: 91, 68, trace
Aug 29: 90, 62
Aug 30: 92, 52
Aug 31: 97, 55, trace

Drought Finally Vanquished in the Texas Panhandle

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

A cloudburst near Dumas, TX - an example of the type of storm we've seen
over the last month. 

Who knows how long it will last, but all traces of drought have FINALLY been washed away in the Texas Panhandle! The drought, which began in September 2010, made its last stand right here in Dallam and Hartley counties. The U.S. Drought Montior map has had us ranked "abonormally dry" since July 14, 2015. The latest map, dated August  4, shows no drought conditions whatsoever.

According to the National Weather Service, Dalhart had recorded 13" of precipitation (at the airport) since the beginning of the year, which is a good 1.29" above average. July was a big help, with 4.15" of rain for the month. We picked up an additional 1.29" of rain since August 1. 

Thunderheads and nighttime lightning displays have been common since mid July, with rainy periods lasting several days. The NWS recorded rainfall at the Dalhart airport almost daily between July 15 and July 22, July 28 and Aug 4, and again since Aug 8. In fact, it rained somewhere in Dallam and/or Hartley county every day between July 13 and August 3 according to the daily rain map provided by the NWS.  

Drought conditions no longer exist in
the Texas Panhandle, although
dry conditions are returning to
the eastern part of the state.

Some of these storms have been prolific rain producers. I sat alongside a cornfield on South Sedan Road amazed at how such a small storm could dump so much water. In town, the final rodeo performance of the XIT Rodeo and Reunion was underway. It was nice and dry there. Where I was, rain was being blown sideways as it blotted out the setting sun. That storm missed the airport, with only a trace of rain recorded there. Pivot rain gauges on Texaspivot.com and a CoCoRaHS observer show about a half inch of rain fell where I was parked. 

A similar downpour reduced visibilites on Hwy. 54 about a mile east of Dalhart on Aug 3. That storm took a glancing blow at the city and was followed by another after dark. Dalhart picked up 1.17" at the airport for both storms. Texaspivot.com shows 2" of rain fell along Hwy. 54 where I had been parked. Another big rain day was July 31, with 1.30" of rain recorded at the airport. 

 

The CoCoRaHS observer in Texline has recorded 6.81" of rain since July 15, with 13 days of rainfall ranging from 0.03" on July 15 to 2.17" on August 10. The CoCoRaHS observer along South Sedan Road has recorded 3.88" of rain since July 15, with 11 days of rain ranging from 0.06" on July 19 to 0.81" on August 3.

Rain totals on Texaspivot.com are equally impressive over the past month: near Perico almost 6.5", east of Texline 5.75", far northern Dallam County in the grasslands about 9.25", near Conlen 4.25", almost 6" just east of Hartley, north of Channing 6.5", near Romero and Middlewater about 4". Pivots close to Dalhart recorded about 5" near the cheese plant and 3.5" just south of town. 

And it's not just raining here. "Amarillo, which has been keeping weather records since 1892, received 25.03 inches from January 1st through July 31st this year.  This is the wettest January through July period on record, exceeding the old record of 23.83 inches of precipitation set in 1960," reads a press release from the Amarillo NWS dated August 6th. Other towns also experiencing their wettest year ever include Borger, Hereford, Pampa, Panhandle, Perryton and Shamrock. Amarillo playa lakes are overflowing, and flood events have been reported across the Texas Panhandle. 

The press release continues: "Since the beginning of May, Lake Meredith has increased in depth by over 14 feet and gained nearly 70,000 acre-feet of stored water as a result of widespread heavy rainfall." As of August 11, Lake Meredith was at a depth of 59.90', more than half of it's record height of 101.85' in April 1973. It was back in August of 2013 when it hit its all time record low of 26.14 feet. 

Why all the rain? The press release explains: "Much of this wetter-than-normal weather can be attributed to the influence of an ongoing El Niño event across the tropical Pacific Ocean, which began in late 2014 and continues to strengthen this summer. El Niño events typically increase the chances for above normal precipitation across the Panhandles, especially during winter and spring months.  With the current El Niño likely to last into early 2016 and peak as a strong event later this year, the potential for flooding and flash flooding will continue to be higher than normal through the rest of this summer." 

Being summer and all, daily high temperatures have generally been in the upper 90's.We have had eight days below 90 degrees since July 12, and eight days at 100 or above. The high of 103 on August 6, the first day of the XIT Rodeo and Reunion, set a new record, beating out the high of 101 set in 2013. July 2015 ended with an average high of 93.7 degrees and an average low of 65.9 degrees. We have averaged a high of 93.2 degrees the first 10 days of August.

High and low temps and rainfall over the last month. 

Jul 12: 100, 66

Jul 13: 100, 67

Jul 14: 97, 67

Jul 15: 97, 67, trace

Jul 16: 93, 67, trace

Jul 17: 99, 65, trace

Jul 18: 100, 66, 0.06"

Jul 19: 96, 68, trace

Jul 20: 91, 68, 0.19"

Jul 21: 85, 66, 0.02"

Jul 22: 92, 69, trace

Jul 23: 98, 67

Jul 24: 100, 67

Jul 25: 101, 70

Jul 26: 101, 69

Jul 27: 101, 69

Jul 28: 94, 65, 0.15"

Jul 29: 86, 67, trace

Jul 30: 85, 68, 0.12"

Jul 31: 84, 66, 1.30"

Aug 1: 88, 67, trace

Aug 2: 93, 69

Aug 3: 88, 67, 0.34"

Aug 4: 91, 62, 0.83"

Aug 5: 90, 68

Aug 6: 103, 68

Aug 7: 99, 65

Aug 8: 96, 65, trace

Aug 9: 97, 66, trace

Aug 10: 87, 66, 0.04"