What Will It Take To End This Drought?

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

There is a hint of spring in the air, thanks to a number of 60 and 70 degree days over the past couple of weeks. True, we might see a final winter blast in March, as has happened in the past (see updated forecast below), but who can resist the blue skies and warm temperatures? Here at the house, the family bicycles have officially been pulled out of the garage, polished up, and ridden a few laps around the neighborhood. 

Our last truly cold day was back on Feb. 10 when the high temperature never got above freezing. Since then, we have enjoyed five days above 60 degrees and another three days in the 70's. These warm days have been briefly interrupted by cold fronts that drop us back into the 40's, but the effect is short-lived.

March is just around the corner, when snow boots and heavy coats are replaced by hopeful umbrellas at the front door. As we approach the wetter months of the year, the question arises: will we finally get enough rain this year to break the drought? 

How big of a rain event do we need to halt it in its tracks? 

I posed these question to Krissy Scotten, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. The answer was not as simple as I hoped for.

"I cannot say it's going to take just one event," Scotten said. "What it is going to take is a pattern change, from year to year, that brings us normal to above normal rainfall. One big event might bring some short term relief, but what we really need is a significant pattern change."

Ouch. It may take us a couple of years to pull out of this drought? Well consider this fact. Dalhart averages around 18 inches a year in precipitation from rain and snow. However, our precipitation total for the past three years combined is - ready for this - a mere 19 inches. In other words, we are a good 35 inches behind our normal rainfall total.

"That is drier than anything in the Dust Bowl or the 1950's," Scotten said, "Dalhart is very, very dry. This is a significant drought."

Honestly, we may not want to see a 35 inch rainfall event that breaks the drought. That would be going from one extreme to the other. Even so, a return to a normal rainfall pattern this year will not do us much good if we fall back into a 6 or 7 inch pattern next year. 

So, is there a change in the weather coming that will help us out? Maybe, just maybe.

"El Niño is showing signs of returning this fall," Scotten said. "That could really help. We tend to see more snow in the winter and more thunderstorms in the spring during an El Niño."

We will discuss El Niños and La Niñas in a future article, but here is a quick overview. The heat and moisture generated by the Pacific Ocean affects weather patterns around the world. A La Niña pattern, in which the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal, tends to push the rain and snow away from our area. Sure enough, when our drought began, a La Niña pattern was in play that year. An El Niño, on the other hand, means the ocean is warmer than normal, and it could very well bring the rain back.

For now, however, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting our drought to persist through the end of May, according to the latest outlook issued Feb. 20. However, precipitation is forecast "equal chances" to be above or below average during the same period. In other words, we have a 50/50 chance of seeing a drier or a wetter spring. That's not really good news, but it ain't bad news either.

Meanwhile, Dallam and Hartley counties continue in the grip of an "extreme" drought, according to the US Drought Monitor, released Feb. 20. The majority of both counties are ranked D4 (on a scale of D0 to D5), with the area east of Channing considered D5, "exceptional" drought.

UPDATED: For the rest of this week, we will enjoy a high above 60 degrees today and Friday, Feb. 28. However, after a high of 61 on Saturday, cold weather returns. We have a 20% chance of rain and/or snow Saturday night into Sunday. The high on Sunday is forecast to be a chilly 29 degrees. Until then, expect mostly sunny skies during the day. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s. Sunday's low will be near 13 degrees. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Feb 10: 22, 18

Feb 11: 46, 20

Feb 12: 54, 21

Feb 13: 69, 31

Feb 14: 56, 32

Feb 15: 76, 31

Feb 16: 74, 29

Feb 17: 65, 35

Feb 18: 77, 42

Feb 19: 69, 34

Feb 20: 56, 22

Feb 21: 61, 18

Feb 22: 68, 24

Feb 23: 47, 27

This column makes its initial appearance every Wednesday in "The County Times Two" newsletter, an email newsletter focusing on the positive happenings of Dallam and Hartley counties in the Texas panhandle. To subscribe, contact Robin Scott at thecountytimestwo@live.com. Forecasts mentioned in this blog version of the column are dated by a couple of days and are only updated if a significant change in weather is expected. 

Follow me on Facebook at "Dalhart Cloud Chasing" or on Google+ at "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)" to see more weather and wildlife photos from the Dalhart area.

Make Your Own Snow

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Freezing fog left a heavy layer of frost on the trees.

Have you ever wanted to create your own snow storm? It’s easy. All you need is a cold day, an inversion, and several large factories. While Dalhart residents dealt with cold temperatures and freezing fog, THE weather story of the week took place Monday morning near Borger, with what is being called “factory effect snow.”

It is an extremely rare phenomenon in which the steam produced by a large factory adds enough moisture to the air to form snow. The Amarillo office of the National Weather Service posted a special slide program explaining this, as it does not happen every day. First, the air has to be cold and saturated in the lower levels. Second, the factory steam has to rise and basically become trapped in the correct area of the atmosphere. This is due to an inversion, which is a layer of warmer air in the atmosphere that acts as a cap and prevents the steam from escaping. 

If all conditions are right, snowflakes form, and the wind blows the snow downstream from the factory.  Not only is this a rare thing, but the amount of snow it produced was equally so - up to 3” of snow in narrow bands near Borger. 

Dalhart did not see any snow or ice from the latest cold snap, but freezing fog Sunday and Monday painted tree limbs and fence posts white with frost. This was preceded by a very pleasant weekend, with the high on Saturday reaching 66 degrees. 

Last week’s snow finally totaled 2.8” after three days (Feb. 4, 5 and 6), which was the equivalent of 0.08” of moisture. We shivered our way through overnight lows that fell as low as 4 degrees on Feb 6. 

Warmer weather is in store for the rest of the week. The high today is expected to be in the mid 50s, and we could see the mid 70s by Saturday. Partly cloudy skies will be the norm, and no rain is in the forecast. 

January 2014 ended with an average high of 50.9 degrees and an average low of 19.8 degrees. We received 3” of very dry snow throughout the month. It contained only 0.01” of moisture. 

High and low temps the past two weeks

Jan 28: 35, 11

Jan 29: 51, 18

Jan 30: 55, 34

Jan 31: 38, 22

Feb 1: 37, 18

Feb 2: 35, 18

Feb 3: 51, 26

Feb 4: 33, 15

Feb 5: 15, 5

Feb 6: 17, 4

Feb 7: 55, 11

Feb 8: 66, 25

Feb 9: 44, 20

Feb 10: 22, 18

Winter Weather Travel Safety

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Snowfall at Rita Blanca Lake covers the walking trail, right, and
the frozen lake shore, left, creating a peaceful scene.

Update: Since this article appeared in yesterday's "The County Times Two" newsletter, Dalhart has received more snow, a total of 1.3" according to storm reports sent to the NWS office in Amarillo. This is preliminary and we will talk more about it next week. In addition, our high temperature never surpassed 20 degrees, and overnight lows fell to around 4 degrees. Snow chances for this weekend have been removed from the forecast. Updates to the forecast are in italics below.)

Snow fell again overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, the latest winter weather bringing Dalhart at least 1" of the white stuff. Texline reported 2", as did Boise City. Stratford got 1", and Dumas received 2", as reported on the website of the National Weather Service.  

Snow chances continued Wednesday through this morning, as mentioned in the update above. Temperatures will soon begin to warm up, reaching the mid 40s on Friday, and the mid 50s on Saturday. We have another chance of snow on Monday, with high temperatures falling back into the low 30s. 

Last week, I extolled the value of not traveling during winter weather. Of course, travel is unavoidable at times. Our recent snow events have been gentle, with roads clearing quickly. However, it is always a good idea to review winter weather travel safety, especially if you plan to go where winter delivers more of a punch. Actually, it is a good idea if you travel anywhere during the winter months. Last week, northern Alabama and parts of Georgia were surprised as ice and a couple inches of snow snarled traffic on Interstates and other main highways. In some areas, drivers had to shelter overnight in their cars. 

If you plan on traveling, always check the weather and road conditions ahead of time, encourages the NWS in an article on their website. In addition, it is important to get your car winterized. Check your ignition system, cooling system, fuel system, battery, lights, tires, heater, brakes, wipers, defroster, oil, and exhaust.  

Avoid traveling alone, if possible. Make sure others know your travel route and timetable. Stay in touch with these people if you have to change your travel plans. Make sure to stop and top off your gas tank if the weather is looking bad. Carry supplies that could help you if you get stranded, such as a flashlight, windshield scraper, booster cables, and a car charger for you cell phone. To stay safe, also carry extra clothes, matches and candles, blankets, a compass, maps of your travel routes, paper towels, water, and high calorie non-perishable food.

If you end up stranded in a winter storm, remember - never leave your vehicle until help arrives. For heat, run your motor periodically to conserve fuel, about 10 minutes each hour. While you do so, crack the windows for fresh air to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Be sure to keep your exhaust pipe clear of snow when the engine is running. To stay warm, exercise periodically in your car by vigorously moving your arms, legs, toes and fingers. Tie a colored cloth (preferably red) to your antenna or door to signal you need help. 

Hopefully, you will never have to deal with such a situation. However, as I wrote last week, never underestimate winter weather. Even a few inches of snow could lead to a situation you never anticipated.Please, exercise caution and be prepared if you have to travel during winter. 

Data for the high and low temperatures the past week was unavailable at the time of writing.

For local weather and wildlife photos, make sure to follow Aaron on Facebook at "Dalhart Cloud Chasing", or on Google+ at "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)". 

A Winter Story

Dalhart Weather Review

By Aaron Graves

Dalhart received another 1.5” of snow on Thursday, Jan. 23, which was a bit more than forecast. It was another dry snow, however. Only 0.01” or moisture was recorded at the airport and reported to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. 

Still, it was pretty, or so I was told. I rode this snow event out in Lubbock. I made the three hour trip south for family reasons, and I delayed returning until Friday because of a promise I made to myself. “NEVER TRAVEL IN WINTER WEATHER AGAIN.”

I drove through a heavy snow storm on I-27 in this small two door sports car. 

Back at the turn of the century (sounds cool to say that), I found myself on I-27 in treacherous conditions, not once, but twice! The first year, it was ice. The second year, a heavy snow storm. In both cases, I had to creep along to avoid becoming one of numerous cars, vans and semis scattered along the side of the road, laying upside down or on their sides. I even saw a snow plow lose control and spin out.  

Thus, the promise to never travel during a winter event, a promise that I broke a few years later. Again, I set off from Lubbock, this time with my family in tow. Light snow was falling, and the roads looked passable, provided I kept my speed down and was cautious.  It was a good strategy. Unfortunately, other drivers were not as careful. 

Outside of Canyon, the Interstate was covered by a light layer of snow. A white Oldsmobile lost control and began spinning across both lanes of north-bound traffic. Other drivers ahead of me did what they could to avoid hitting him, one car coming within inches. Although I was driving slow, my mental math calculator told me I could not stop before rear-ending the nearest car. 

My only option was either left or right. Either way, however, I would most likely lose control of the van I was driving. So whatever move I made, it had to be a good one. Left had too many obstacles - cars, light posts, signs. To the right, I spotted an opening between sign posts and a nice, flat grassy area. I announced to the family I was “heading for the ditch, hold on”, and tried to gently steer off the road. 

Sure enough, when I hit the grass, the van began to spin. The back end tried to pass me on the left, and we did a complete 360 as I turned into the spin. Everyone screamed! And then, we stopped. 

The van did not flip, and we did not hit anyone or anything. We survived, as did the Oldsmobile and all the other cars that could have been caught up in the carnage. But the lesson was learned, this time for good. It does not matter the amount of snow, traveling in winter weather is dangerous! 

I have not done it since, and I always encourage everyone to check the weather before leaving on a trip. Winter will surprise you, given the chance. 

For the rest of this week, look for highs in the mid 50’s through Friday. Saturday we will drop back into the mid 40s again. Friday will be a bit on the windy side, with gusts up to 25 mph. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to low 20s. No rain or snow is in the forecast. 

Hi and low temps the past week

Jan 20: 56, 26

Jan 21: 67, 20

Jan 22: 48, 25

Jan 23: 30, 0

Jan 24: 55, 4

Jan 25: 60, 29

Jan 26: 61, 29

Panhandle Sunsets

Dalhart Weather Review
By Aaron Graves

A lot has happened since this article appeared in "The County Times Two" newsletter yesterday. The expected winter blast mentioned in the article below did hit, with snow falling in Dalhart today. A total of 1.5" was reported to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. More on the snow next week...

iPad snapshot of an amazing sunset in Dalhart last week by Mandolin Graves

Dalhart residents were treated to a couple of amazing sunsets during the past week. Hopefully you got to see them. If you did, did you notice that the colors reached their peak after the sun had fully set?

I learned this fact a couple of years ago. A late afternoon thunderstorm had moved on to the east, trailing behind it a sky full of high mammatus clouds. I waited near an open field for the sun to sink low in expectation of an amazing sunset. But as the sun made its way down, nothing happened. The eastern sky remained a dull gray. 

As the top of the sun’s orb slipped below the horizon, I packed up my camera and got in my car, disappointed. I made a U-turn on the highway and gave one last, regretful glance to the eastern sky as I drove away. To my surprise, it had exploded with color. 

Turns out, the curve of the earth combines with air quality and a cloud’s height to make a spectacular sunset, or sunrise for that matter, according to an article by Stephen F. Corfidi of the Storm Prediction Center. The article was originally printed in “Weatherwise” Magazine in the mid 90s, but was recently updated on the National Weather Service website. 

In short, once the sun sinks below the horizon, we are viewing its rays at an angle. These rays have been scattered by small atmospheric particles, so that we are seeing mainly the orange and red wavelengths. These rays reflect off higher based clouds and produce the vivid sunsets. 

“Some of the most beautiful sunrises and sunsets feature solid decks of middle or high clouds that cover the entire sky except for a narrow clear strip near the horizon,” Corfidi writes. Clouds that are too low will not do the trick. 

Air free of large dust particles and other pollutants help make for brilliant colors. Thus, late fall and winter are usually when we see the best sunsets. In addition, higher-based clouds needed to reflect the sunlight are usually associated with a passing weather disturbance. “When viewed at sunrise,” Corfidi continues, “a sky of this type implies that the weather is likely to deteriorate as the mid- and upper-level moisture continues eastward. At sunset, of course, the opposite is true, hence the saying ‘Red sky at night, traveler's delight; Red sky in morning, traveler take warning.’”

Here is a link to the entire paper. It is worth the read. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/sunset/

WINTER RETURNS: “Old Man Winter will give us all a slap in the face on Thursday,” reads the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. Dalhart’s high on Thursday will stay below well freezing after a strong cold front blows through. Likewise, the overnight low will plummet below 10 degrees. A 20% chance of light snow is in the forecast, with little accumulation expected. 

However, the effect of the cold front will be short-lived. For this weekend, the high on Friday will climb back into the mid 40s, and then back to 60 by Sunday. Overnight lows will return to the mid 20s. 

Remember, though, that this article is written a day in advance of the newsletter, so this forecast is dated. Please keep an eye on the weather as we approach Thursday by logging onto www.weather.gov. 

The cold front will briefly interrupt a second week of pleasant, almost spring-like weather. Last Sunday’s high reached 69 degrees, with calm winds and clear skies. We did have a couple of blustery days, with winds gusting near 40 mph. 

Snow geese flying overhead at Lake Rita Blanca

BIRD REPORT: The warmer temps have thawed out Lake Rita Blanca, allowing the geese and ducks to once again congregate on its surface. A large group of Northern Pintail ducks were spotted near the dam. At the boat ramp, Mallards and Wigeons dominate, along with white Snow Geese, which seem to be more numerous than the darker Canadian Geese. A flock of Red-winged Black Birds also made an appearance. 

We enjoyed a warm Sunday afternoon by the boat ramp, where a group of Snow Geese came up to the shore and just stayed put. Most Snow Geese are white with black wing tips, but there are some with darker coloring on their body and wings. These were once thought to be a separate species called the “Blue Goose”, but are now considered a “blue morph” of the Snow Goose. 

"Blue morph" snow goose

Around town, grackles, pigeons, doves, House Sparrows, and the occasional Northern Flicker woodpecker are common. These birds are seen year round.   

To talk weather and birds, you can reach me at thirtyguitars@yahoo.com. Please follow me and check out more photographs on Facebook at “Dalhart Cloud Chasing” or on Google Plus at “Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)”. 

Hi and low temps the past week

Jan 13: 56, 20
Jan 14: 46, 21
Jan 15: 55, 17
Jan 16: 51, 28
Jan 17: 54, 15
Jan 18: 61, 23
Jan 19: 69, 23

Warm Temps and Blue Skies

Dalhart Weather Review (and bird report)    By Aaron Graves

Amazing the difference a week makes. Back on Jan. 6, we endured a low of 7 degrees. That’s cold! So cold I saw a hitchhiker holding up a picture of his thumb. So cold my dog was wearing my cat to stay warm. So cold that I stuck my head in the freezer just to warm my ears up. 

Fast forward only six days, and wow! We reached a high of 71 degrees on Jan. 12. That’s bikini weather in winter! Since the last snow event, skies have been clear, blue, and warm. Perfect weather, except for the occasional windy day, and it looks to stay that way through the weekend. (See forecast below)

The only weather event to speak of was a cold front on Sunday Jan. 12 that kicked up the dust. Dalhart recorded a peak gust of 44 mph at the airport, according to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. Once the front passed, winds blew steady between 20 and 30 mph. 

What, exactly, is a cold front? The name “front” comes from the battlefield, as in “the front line.” It is the leading edge of a mass of cold air that is replacing a mass of warmer air. Thus, the high on Monday was about 15 degrees cooler than the high on Sunday, thanks to the cold front. 

Cold fronts usually announce themselves with a band of clouds, a drop in temperature, and a change in wind speed and direction. If enough moisture is in the air, a cold front can help generate rain and snow during the winter. During springtime, a cold front can spark a long line of heavy to severe thunderstorms. Why? 

Since cold air is denser and heavier than warm air, a cold front is like a bulldozer. It replaces warm, moist air by scooping it up and over itself, which can trigger rain, snow, or thunderstorms if conditions are right.

Knowing this helps meteorologists forecast the weather. By measuring temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and air pressure across the country, forecasters can pinpoint the location of cold fronts and discern the direction they are moving. If the air ahead of a front has all the right ingredients, forecasters know stormy weather is a possibility for that area. 

As for the rest of this week, expect high temperatures to reach the mid 50s to near 60 through Sunday. Overnight lows will continue near 20. At the time of this writing, no rain or snow was in the forecast. Expect breezy conditions on Thursday. 

For you bird enthusiasts, Mallard Ducks and American Wigeons are numerous at Lake Rita Blanca now that the surface of the lake has thawed out. Keep your eyes peeled, however, for other duck species, such as the Northern Pintail (which I last spotted before the cold weather set in). Snow Geese and Canadian Geese are everywhere. Eagles and various hawks continue to hang out in the trees. 

The American Kestrel pictured was spotted last week just east of Dalhart along a farm road. A kestrel is a small falcon that is often seen hovering in mid-air like a hummingbird. They have striking blue and orange feathers. 

To report any weather (or bird) news, such as wind damage or snow and rain totals, email Aaron at thirtyguitars@yahoo.com. Please follow Aaron on Facebook at “Dalhart Cloud Chasing”, or on Google Plus, "Aaron Graves (Dalhart Cloud Chasing)".

Hi and low temps the past week:

Jan 6: 32, 7
Jan 7: 52, 18
Jan 8: 40, 21
Jan 9: 60, 16
Jan 10: 55, 30
Jan 11: 63, 21
Jan 12: 71, 40 

Fourth Snowfall and Eagles at The Lake

Dalhart Weather Review
By Aaron Graves

Eagles are reported at Lake Rita Blanca. This one was in the
old tree next to the boat ramp, enjoying his breakfast.

While the eastern part of the nation fell into a deep freeze, Dalhart enjoyed light snowfall Saturday and Sunday. A total of 1.5” of snow was reported to the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. It was rather dry, however, with little real moisture content. Thus, only a trace of precipitation was recorded. Still, this makes the fourth snow event for the season, with a total of 11” since Nov. 21. 

Along with the snow last weekend came the bitter cold, with a low of 7 degrees early Monday morning. And, believe it or not, it is the temperature that determines how much moisture the ground benefits from during a snow event. 

“A good average number is that about a foot of snow is equivalent to one inch of water,” explains the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M on their website. It continues, “but this number is highly variable, and in particular is strongly dependent on temperature.  If the temperature is above freezing, an inch of liquid might correspond to six inches of snow. This is called wet snow. If the temperature is around 30 degrees, ten inches of snow might equal an inch of rain. And if the temperature is only 10 degrees Fahrenheit, it might take 18 to 24 inches of snow to equal one inch of liquid water. This is called dry snow, or powder snow.”

December 2013 ended with an average high of 47.2 degrees and an average low of 18.5 degrees. We had 6 days during the month when the temperature never got above 32 degrees, and only 2 days when the overnight low did not fall below freezing. Our overall average temperature for the month was 32.8 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees cooler than the 30 year average. 

We enjoyed 6.5” of snow in December, which translated into 0.21” of moisture. This is 0.33” below the 30 year average. We received 7.84” of precipitation for the entire year of 2013. Our 30 year normal is 17.61”.  

January has an average precipitation total of 0.54”. Hopefully, this pattern of frequent snow events will continue, and bring us more moisture. 

Through the weekend, high temps will get into the mid 50s, with no rain or snow in the forecast. A 20% chance of rain mentioned in the newsletter version of this column has dried up for our area. 

Hi and low temperatures the past week

Dec 30: 51, 16
Dec 31: 57, 22
Jan 1: 54, 23
Jan 2: 49, 15
Jan 3: 64, 23
Jan 4: 44, 20
Jan 5: 24, 11

Eight eagles, several ravens, and a coyote were visible on the surface
of Lake Rita Blanca after a recent freeze. Eagles have been visible most
mornings at the lake, either on the ice or in the trees around the lake.

Over at Lake Rita Blanca, just south of town, the eagles are in full force right now. They are large birds, the adults have white heads and white tales. Younger eagles are just as large as the adults, but have brown feathers streaked with white. 

When the lake is frozen, you can spot several eagles on the ice feeding on fallen geese. Smaller birds you see with the eagles are usually ravens. They have been visible from the boat ramp. Both photos in this week's column have come from that area of the lake. However, if you drive back to the dam, you can also spot eagles up in the trees at the back of the lake. 

Along with eagles and ravens, look for Red-tailed Hawks and Northern Harriers, in addition to the large amount of Canadian and Snow Geese. Smaller birds spotted near the lake recently include the White-crowned Sparrow and Meadowlarks (found along the road leading to the dam). I was also able to lay eyes on a Ferruginous Hawk with the past month.