Fall Begins

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

The official start of fall (the autumn equinox) is set for Wednesday, Sept. 23. However, for weather enthusiasts, fall has already begun. It is called "meteorological fall" and it began yesterday. Summer begins to lose its grip around Sept. 1 which means milder days are in store on a normal year. But this is not a normal year. 



It is an El Niño year! Already, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for above average precipitation and below average temperatures for the Texas Panhandle through the end of November. 

So, how did the last few weeks of summer go here in Dalhart? We ended the month of August with 1.72" of precipitation as recorded at the airport. This was a good inch below normal. The only big rain event was on Aug. 17 and 18. That brought us 0.43". As of August 31, we have seen 13.43" of precipitation for the year, which is normal for this time of year. At this time last year, we had only seen 8.64", so enjoy!

Daily high temperatures have generally been in the upper 80's and low 90's since Aug. 11.  Of note was the new high temperature record we set on Aug. 22 - 101 degrees - which beat out the old record of 99 set just last year. The very next day, our high temperature maxed out at a refreshing 78 degrees. August 2015 ended with an average high of 91.2 degrees and an average low of 63.3 degrees.

Things are looking good for the Texas Panhandle throughout the end of November. As mentioned above, the Climate Prediction Center forecast a 40% chance of above average precipitation and a 33% chance of below average temperatures over the next three months. The Panhandle is still drought free according to the latest U.S. Drought Montitor map, although dry conditions have returned to eastern Texas. However, the CPC is not expecting the drought to dig in over there, calling for it to disappear over the next three months. 

High and low temps, and rainfall, past few weeks

Aug 11: 87, 66, 0.08"
Aug 12: 94, 67
Aug 13: 96, 67
Aug 14: 90, 71
Aug 15: 92, 65
Aug 16: 93, 67
Aug 17: 87, 63, 0.41"
Aug 18: 84, 64, 0.02"
Aug 19: 74, 58, trace
Aug 20: 83, 52
Aug 21: 90, 60
Aug 22: 101, 60
Aug 23: 78, 63
Aug 24: 90, 56
Aug 25: 94, 58
Aug 26: 96, 60
Aug 27: 96, 65
Aug 28: 91, 68, trace
Aug 29: 90, 62
Aug 30: 92, 52
Aug 31: 97, 55, trace

Drought Finally Vanquished in the Texas Panhandle

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

A cloudburst near Dumas, TX - an example of the type of storm we've seen
over the last month. 

Who knows how long it will last, but all traces of drought have FINALLY been washed away in the Texas Panhandle! The drought, which began in September 2010, made its last stand right here in Dallam and Hartley counties. The U.S. Drought Montior map has had us ranked "abonormally dry" since July 14, 2015. The latest map, dated August  4, shows no drought conditions whatsoever.

According to the National Weather Service, Dalhart had recorded 13" of precipitation (at the airport) since the beginning of the year, which is a good 1.29" above average. July was a big help, with 4.15" of rain for the month. We picked up an additional 1.29" of rain since August 1. 

Thunderheads and nighttime lightning displays have been common since mid July, with rainy periods lasting several days. The NWS recorded rainfall at the Dalhart airport almost daily between July 15 and July 22, July 28 and Aug 4, and again since Aug 8. In fact, it rained somewhere in Dallam and/or Hartley county every day between July 13 and August 3 according to the daily rain map provided by the NWS.  

Drought conditions no longer exist in
the Texas Panhandle, although
dry conditions are returning to
the eastern part of the state.

Some of these storms have been prolific rain producers. I sat alongside a cornfield on South Sedan Road amazed at how such a small storm could dump so much water. In town, the final rodeo performance of the XIT Rodeo and Reunion was underway. It was nice and dry there. Where I was, rain was being blown sideways as it blotted out the setting sun. That storm missed the airport, with only a trace of rain recorded there. Pivot rain gauges on Texaspivot.com and a CoCoRaHS observer show about a half inch of rain fell where I was parked. 

A similar downpour reduced visibilites on Hwy. 54 about a mile east of Dalhart on Aug 3. That storm took a glancing blow at the city and was followed by another after dark. Dalhart picked up 1.17" at the airport for both storms. Texaspivot.com shows 2" of rain fell along Hwy. 54 where I had been parked. Another big rain day was July 31, with 1.30" of rain recorded at the airport. 

 

The CoCoRaHS observer in Texline has recorded 6.81" of rain since July 15, with 13 days of rainfall ranging from 0.03" on July 15 to 2.17" on August 10. The CoCoRaHS observer along South Sedan Road has recorded 3.88" of rain since July 15, with 11 days of rain ranging from 0.06" on July 19 to 0.81" on August 3.

Rain totals on Texaspivot.com are equally impressive over the past month: near Perico almost 6.5", east of Texline 5.75", far northern Dallam County in the grasslands about 9.25", near Conlen 4.25", almost 6" just east of Hartley, north of Channing 6.5", near Romero and Middlewater about 4". Pivots close to Dalhart recorded about 5" near the cheese plant and 3.5" just south of town. 

And it's not just raining here. "Amarillo, which has been keeping weather records since 1892, received 25.03 inches from January 1st through July 31st this year.  This is the wettest January through July period on record, exceeding the old record of 23.83 inches of precipitation set in 1960," reads a press release from the Amarillo NWS dated August 6th. Other towns also experiencing their wettest year ever include Borger, Hereford, Pampa, Panhandle, Perryton and Shamrock. Amarillo playa lakes are overflowing, and flood events have been reported across the Texas Panhandle. 

The press release continues: "Since the beginning of May, Lake Meredith has increased in depth by over 14 feet and gained nearly 70,000 acre-feet of stored water as a result of widespread heavy rainfall." As of August 11, Lake Meredith was at a depth of 59.90', more than half of it's record height of 101.85' in April 1973. It was back in August of 2013 when it hit its all time record low of 26.14 feet. 

Why all the rain? The press release explains: "Much of this wetter-than-normal weather can be attributed to the influence of an ongoing El Niño event across the tropical Pacific Ocean, which began in late 2014 and continues to strengthen this summer. El Niño events typically increase the chances for above normal precipitation across the Panhandles, especially during winter and spring months.  With the current El Niño likely to last into early 2016 and peak as a strong event later this year, the potential for flooding and flash flooding will continue to be higher than normal through the rest of this summer." 

Being summer and all, daily high temperatures have generally been in the upper 90's.We have had eight days below 90 degrees since July 12, and eight days at 100 or above. The high of 103 on August 6, the first day of the XIT Rodeo and Reunion, set a new record, beating out the high of 101 set in 2013. July 2015 ended with an average high of 93.7 degrees and an average low of 65.9 degrees. We have averaged a high of 93.2 degrees the first 10 days of August.

High and low temps and rainfall over the last month. 

Jul 12: 100, 66

Jul 13: 100, 67

Jul 14: 97, 67

Jul 15: 97, 67, trace

Jul 16: 93, 67, trace

Jul 17: 99, 65, trace

Jul 18: 100, 66, 0.06"

Jul 19: 96, 68, trace

Jul 20: 91, 68, 0.19"

Jul 21: 85, 66, 0.02"

Jul 22: 92, 69, trace

Jul 23: 98, 67

Jul 24: 100, 67

Jul 25: 101, 70

Jul 26: 101, 69

Jul 27: 101, 69

Jul 28: 94, 65, 0.15"

Jul 29: 86, 67, trace

Jul 30: 85, 68, 0.12"

Jul 31: 84, 66, 1.30"

Aug 1: 88, 67, trace

Aug 2: 93, 69

Aug 3: 88, 67, 0.34"

Aug 4: 91, 62, 0.83"

Aug 5: 90, 68

Aug 6: 103, 68

Aug 7: 99, 65

Aug 8: 96, 65, trace

Aug 9: 97, 66, trace

Aug 10: 87, 66, 0.04"

Beautiful Summer Now, Wet Winter Possible

Dalhart Weather Review

(June 14 through July 11)

By Aaron Graves

As far as summer goes, it has been nice in the XIT City. In the short term, heavy rain made up for a dry June. In the long run, forecasters are excited about the current El Niño. Previously considered to be a weak pattern, forecasters think it might be one of the strongest El Niño events in 50 years. This could mean a wet winter for the Texas Panhandle. 

More on that below. First, let’s talk rain. Grass was starting to yellow after the clouds dried up the second half of June. The last measurable rainfall in June was on the 18th, with 0.33”. June 2015 ended with only 0.85” of precipitation, about an inch and a half below average. 

However, scattered storms returned to Dallam and Hartley counties early in July. Strong storms on July 8 and 9 brought 2.31” of rain. Thanks to that, our year-to-date precipitation total (as of July 11) is 9.87”, which is 1.20” above normal. 

Since June 14, we have had 17 days with high temperatures at 90 degrees or above. The two hottest days were June 22 with 100 degrees, and July 1 with 101 degrees. June 2015 ended with an average high of  90.6 degrees and an average low of 61.1 degrees. 

A cold front on July 7 pulled down smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, as confirmed by the Amarillo office of the NWS. What looked like a fog that wouldn’t go away on July 8 was a mixture of humid air, cooler temperatures, and smoke.

Severe weather brought large hail to the Channing area on July 8, which was documented by extreme storm chaser and TV personality Reed Timmer. His video on YouTube also shows a funnel cloud and possible tornado from the same storm as it moved southeast of Channing, but the NWS in Amarillo did not find any evidence a tornado touched down, and no damage was reported. You can see his video here.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, dated July 7, showed drought free conditions across the entire Texas Panhandle except for Dallam and Hartley Counties. A pocket of moderate drought continued for the eastern part of Hartley County. The central part of Dallam County was listed as abnormally dry. 

The Climate Prediction Center is calling for our small pocket of drought to disappear sometime between now and the end of September, according to their most recent monthly and seasonal outlooks. In addition, the Texas Panhandle has a 40% chance of seeing above average rainfall through the end of September. Temperatures are expected to be below average for the same time period. 

NOAA experts are calling for a 90% chance that the current El Niño pattern will continue through early next year, and an 80% chance that it will last into early spring 2016. A report by the CPC is calling for “a significant El Niño” and “a strong event”. The report notes: “Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter.” 

El Niño tends to bring wetter conditions to the Texas Panhandle, says the NWS in Amarillo in previously columns. Likewise, articles from Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and USA Today, reporting on the strong El Niño forecast, also mention how the southern half of the U.S. sees more rain. 

These articles, however, go a step further and call this El Niño potentially historic, perhaps stronger than the El Niño of 1997 and 1998. Forecasters are hoping the El Niño will bring drought relief to California. 

In other news, June 2015 enters the record books as the second hottest June nationwide, second only to June 1933. It was also the ninth wettest June in 121 years of record keeping, according to the newly renamed National Centers for Environmental Information.

High and low temps, and rainfall the past month

Jun 14: 85, 57, trace

Jun 15: 84, 61

Jun 16: 84, 57

Jun 17: 90, 58

Jun 18: 97, 60, 0.33”

Jun 19: 90, 59

Jun 20: 96, 65

Jun 21: 98, 65

Jun 22: 100, 63

Jun 23: 92, 66

Jun 24: 93, 62

Jun 25: 97, 64

Jun 26: 89, 66

Jun 27: 89, 62

Jun 28: 99, 65

Jun 29: 93, 65

Jun 30: 96, 60

Jul 1: 101, 59

Jul 2: 93, 69, trace

Jul 3: 95, 63, trace

Jul 4: 96, 62, trace

Jul 5: 97, 67

Jul 6: 89, 67, trace

Jul 7: 78, 62

Jul 8: 86, 57, 2.19”

Jul 9: 87, 62, 0.12”

Jul 10: 91, 64

Jul 11: 93, 66

The Dalhart Divide: or - Who Poked a Hole In My Thunderstorm

Dalhart Weather Review

by Aaron Graves

Storm clouds approach from the north. Lightning flashes. Thunder rumbles. Longs streaks of rain are visible just outside of town. The wind kicks up. A blast of cool air hits your face, and you can smell the moisture. You rush to roll your car windows up and herd the kids in from the yard. Five minutes pass. Nothing happens. Another five minutes. Nothing continues to happen. You look out the front door and see..... sunshine.

The "Dalhart Divide" strikes again. That is the new official

The voice of Dalhart, Jesse Torres

name given to the above scenario by KXIT Radio DJ and good friend Jesse Torres. Torres invited listeners to call in and name this phenomenon that seemingly makes a storm fall apart or split in half and completely miss Dalhart. Other names suggested by callers included: the Horseshoe Effect, the Dalhart Jinx, the Da-nana Split, and The Bubble. Dalhart Divide won by popular vote.

I have seen this happen with my own eyes here in Dalhart. Growing up in Lubbock, I noticed that city had its own force field (the Lubbock Limit?) in place when it came to rain. By contrast, when I lived in Canyon, we got nailed every year. Storms would form just outside of town and then dump all manner of cats and dogs on my house. 

It's not hard to notice over time. Some towns appear to get more rain, while other areas miss out. Is that the case here in Dalhart? Is the Dalhart Divide real, or is it an illusion, a trick of the wind? 

This storm north of Dalhart got caught on Uncle Seamore's
barbed wire fence. Actually, Channel 7's Steve Kersh said
it was powerful winds that caused the storm to bow and bend.

Being a bit shy of my Bachelor's of Meteorology degree (I need just four more years of college), I humbly decided to throw this question out to the experts. I conducted a highly scientific survey among my Twitter followers: "Sound off... Do towns and cities cause storms to change path?" An amazing 89.73% of those who responded said "Who are you? Stop tweeting me!" The rest seemed to be in agreement with Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norman, OK. Smith replied: "I say no." 

Other negative responses include Chris Sanner with Tornado Titans ("very unlikely") and @TornadoQuest (an emphatic "No."). Jayson Prentice, a meteorologist in Kansas, had an interesting reply: "Unlikely. But, there have been studies linking cities to storm development." 

Steve Kersh, Chief Meteorologist with Channel 7 in Amarillo, seemed to sum things up. He responded: "Nope. This is a common "old wives' tale." The cities would have zero rain and outside would have all the rain!" 

Kersh makes a good point. It does rain in Dalhart every year or so. For 2015, we have recorded 7.56" of precipitation. In fact, over the past decade, Dalhart has been hit with two blizzards, a skylight smashing hail storm, and one gully washer that uprooted trees and downed power lines. I personally have been rained on so many times during the XIT Rodeo and Reunion I have lost count. 

Still, a highly scientific Twitter survey is not evidence enough to dispel the newly christened Dalhart Divide. So, I consulted with the National Weather Service in Amarillo, the very people who know how the weather works in the Texas Panhandle. "As far as I know," said Mike Gittinger, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, "there is no real proof that the actual town has anything to do with storms changing path." 

Oh well. There goes that theory. After all, Dalhart covers roughly 4.5 square miles. Rita Blanca Lake has less than a quarter square mile surface area. One of the bigger feedlots nearby measures just under a single square mile (Google Earth rocks!). Our tallest buildings in town consist of a grain elevator and a couple of water towers. There's not much here at ground level to scare a thunderstorm away. 

So if it's not the town, what happens when a thunderhead goes out of it's way to not rain on us. The answer has to do with the kind of a storm it is.  

Our typical summer thunderstorm is born from rising columns of hot, moist air. It meanders aimless across the sky, driven by weak, fickle winds in the upper atmosphere. These are typically only 15 miles in diameter and last an average of 30 minutes. A storm that falls apart on final approach to Dalhart has likely reached the end of it's natural life cycle. 

At times, a menacing line of storms will move at us from the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. They form where dry mountain air meets up with moist air coming in from a different direction. "Because winds are more northwesterly higher up in the atmosphere, these storms tend to drift toward the Panhandle and can impact Dalhart," Gittinger explained, and then added, "Because these types of storms are more purely driven by instability and not a storm system, they tend to weaken and dissipate after sunset." 

Additionally, storms in close proximity can and do interfere with each other. A strengthening storm can rob its neighbor of moisture and make it fade away. The rush of air from a dying storm can push a nearby storm off course. Wind, being the invisible force that it is, does not allow us to see these interactions from the ground. We are just left holding a dry umbrella, wondering what happened. 

So, cheer up folks, the experts tell us that Dalhart is not cursed after all. There is not a bubble over us keeping the rain away. The Dalhart Divide, when it strikes, is a function of the atmosphere, the mechanics of storm formation and invisible wind fields. It's not like we have photographic evidence of it raining everywhere but in Dalhart. Oh, wait....

Proof of The Dalhart Divide and The Lubbock Limit

May 2015 Enters The Record Books; June Continues to Drown out the Drought

Storm near Dalhart on June 7.

Dalhart Weather Review
(Jun 2 - Jun 13)

by Aaron Graves

Dalhart recently endured the driest 42 months on record - a drought worse than the infamous Dust Bowl of the 1930's. Over the past month, however, said drought has literally been washed away thanks to the wettest May EVER!

For the continental United States, May 2015 has been declared the wettest May - in fact, the wettest month PERIOD - in 121 years of record keeping. This announcement was made by the National Centers for Environmental Information. Formerly known as the National Climatic Data Center, the NCEI is the keeper of all official weather and climate data for the U.S.

In addition, it was the wettest May for Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado, and ranked in the top 5 for Utah, Kansas, Wyoming, Arkansas, and South Dakota, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor dated June 9.

"With those statistics, it is not surprising that nearly all drought from late March has been eliminated in the Plains, Midwest, and central Gulf Coast," reads the Drought Monitor summary. The color-coded map declares 92.75% of Texas drought free. The remaining 7% of the state is considered abnormally dry. That includes parts of Dallam, Hartley, Sherman, Moore, Potter and Oldham counties. Hartley County has the dubious honor of being the worse off across the entire state. The eastern half of the county is considered in "moderate drought".

The storm that flooded US Hwy. 87 in Hartley

On the local level, rain has been frequent the first 13 days of June. Dalhart has recorded 0.52" of precipitation, according to the Amarillo office of the National Weather Service, bringing our annual precipitation total to 7.23".

Severe weather accompanied some of the storms, including reports of hail and flooding. Of note was the June 4 storm that flooded U.S. Hwy. 87 on the south side of Hartley. A report given to the National Weather Service in Amarillo said the water was "up to wheelwell of tractor trailers." Texaspivot.com rain totals near the city indicate the storm dumped up to five inches of rain. Elsewhere, half dollar size hail was reported in Kerrick and nickle size hail was reported east of Dalhart from the same storm system.

Rain was heavy in places as a fast moving line of severe weather rolled through on Sunday, June 7. A quick glance at Texaspivot.com showed most areas in the path of storm saw about 0.30". However, only 0.07" was recorded at the Dalhart airport.

On June 11, 0.05" of rain fell at the airport and penny size hail was reported four miles east of town. Storms on June 12 added another 0.32".

A NWS cooperative observer inside Dalhart reported 0.86". A CoCoRaHS volunteer northwest of town on South Sedan Road has reported six days of rain since June 1, totaling 0.69". Another volunteer in Texline also reported six days of precipitation, totaling 0.78".

Lightning east of Dalhart.

Looking at June rain totals on Texaspivot.com: about 0.75" of rain east of the Dalhart airport; 1" just south of Dalhart along Hwy. 87 and north of Dalhart near Hilmar Cheese; 7" just south of Hartley; 3.5" on the east side of Hartley; almost 1.25" north of Channing; 0.75" east of Texline and near Perico; 1.5" at Conlen; 1.75" near Romero.

High and low temps, and rain totals, since June 2

Jun 2: 90, 55
Jun 3: 95, 57
Jun 4: 94, 64
Jun 5: 88, 60
Jun 6: 87, 62, 0.05"
Jun 7: 88, 62, 0.07"
Jun 8: 85, 59
Jun 9: 91, 59
Jun 10: 91, 61
Jun 11: 95, 61, 0.05"
Jun 12: 71, 60, 0.32"
Jun 13: 83, 61

Texas Drought In Full Retreat

Dalhart Weather Review

(May 19 - June 1)
by Aaron Graves  

What a May! Over the last two weeks, Dalhart has seen

seven days with measurable rainfall, ending the month with 2.02" of rain. Since January 1, we have seen 6.74" of precipitation, which puts us 1.26" above our normal rainfall as of June 1. 
Rain was widespread over the entire Texas panhandle, with reports of flooding (and tornadoes) in places.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, dated June 2, shows the

Texas drought in full retreat. Most of the state is drought free, with only five localized areas considered "abnormally dry". The only hold out is Dallam, Hartley, Sherman and Moore counties, which are considered in "moderate drought". Still, that is a huge improvement since the end of April. The last time Dallam and Hartley counties were ranked below "severe" drought was back in March of 2011.

Heavy rains and historic flooding helped bring drought relief

to large areas of Texas and Oklahoma. The last time any part of Texas was ranked below "severe" drought was back in June of 2010, according to the NWS office in Midland, TX.

Lake levels have improved. Over 9.1 billion gallons of water were added to lake reservoirs just in the Texas Panhandle, according to the NWS office in Amarillo. Lake

Meredith is up to 50.4 feet, which is 10% full. That's up 5 feet since the end of April.
Summer is approaching and we are going to feel it this week as daytime temperatures are going to get up into the 90 degree range. Our next chance of rain is forecast for Sunday.
 
The first two weeks of June are typically the peak of our severe weather season, so keep an eye on the forecast. Storms on June 1 dropped golf ball sized hail about three miles east southeast of town.
 
High and low temps, and rain totals, the past two weeks

May 19: 72, 45, 0.53"
May 20: 56, 42
May 21: 56, 45, 0.29"
May 22: 70, 48, 0.03"
May 23: 70, 54, 0.33"
May 24: 76, 52
May 25: 75, 47
May 26: 79, 51
May 27: 84, 55, 0.02"
May 28: 80, 56, 0.03"
May 29: 77, 53
May 30: 70, 52
May 31: 83, 48
Jun 1: 87, 58, 0.03"

EXTRA! EXTRA! Drought Retreats!

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows a significant reduction in the drought across Texas and Oklahoma. Even Dallam and Hartley counties was downgraded to "moderate" drought in the eastern parts and "abnormally dry" in the western parts. We haven't see conditions this good since early March of 2011. More details to come. 

Again, the drought relief has been widespread thanks to record rainfall and historic flooding. The following are excerpts from the text summary that accompanies the map:

National Drought Summary for May 26, 2015

"An extraordinarily active weather pattern led to flood intensification across the central and southern Plains, culminating in a Memorial Day weekend deluge. The latest round of heavy rain pushed Oklahoma to its wettest month on record, based on preliminary data, supplanting October 1941. 
"Mostly dry weather returned to North Dakota, but the remainder of the nation’s mid-section continued to receive substantial rainfall. A small pocket of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) persisted from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota. Otherwise, the Plains were free of severe drought, with only a few remaining pockets of moderate drought—largely due to lingering hydrological concerns. In Texas, reservoirs were collectively 82.0% full by May 27, up from 73.2% a month ago and 62.5% six months ago. In the last month, reservoir storage in Texas has increased 2.77 million acre-feet.

"By May 26, month-to-date rainfall totals climbed to 18.97 inches in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and 14.53 inches in Wichita Falls, Texas. In both locations, those values represent the highest monthly totals on record. Previously, Oklahoma City’s wettest month had been June 1989, with 14.66 inches, while Wichita Falls’ had been May 1982, with 13.22 inches. Oklahoma City’s total was boosted by a daily-record total (3.73 inches) on May 23, part of a broad heavy rain event that led to catastrophic flash flooding in portions of the south-central U.S. In Texas, for example, preliminary USGS data indicated that the Blanco River at Wimberly rose more than 35 feet in less than 8 hours, cresting on May 24 at 27.21 feet above flood stage. The preliminary high-water mark at Wimberly was 6.91 feet above the previous record set on May 28, 1929. The San Marcos River near Martinsdale, Texas, surged more than 51 feet in less than 24 hours on May 23-24, based on initial data.