Thanks to Wet Spring, Dalhart Taking Record Hot Summer in Stride

July 17 Downpour along Hwy 54 SW of Dalhart. Rain totals ranged from
about 1" south of Dalhart to 2" or more in town.

Dalhart recovered from a dry winter to enjoy a rather wet spring and now, a rather hot summer. In the next series of blog posts, we'll look at what has happened since March 2016, for there have been a couple of noteworthy events. First, though, let's check the current conditions.

Dalhart is 1.27" above normal precipitation as of July 18. This total is recorded by the National Weather Service in Amarillo at the airport. We have seen 10.57" of precipitation since January 1. Last year's drought-busting rain had us at 9.93" by this time, so we are doing very good for 2016. Not only that, we are taking a record-breaking heatwave in stride.

Heatwaves usually come with high pressure, and high pressure usually means no rain. Sure enough, it has only rained over Dalhart twice this month. We recently received 1.05" from an intense storm on July 17. (Again, this is recorded at the airport. It rained so much in town ~ possibly 2" or more ~ that the Hwy. 87 underpass flooded and was closed for a while). Previously, Dalhart recorded 0.29" on July 3.

Lightning and a rain-soaked sunset from the July 17 downpour.

Meanwhile, the daily high temperature has topped 100
degrees 10 out of the first 18 days this month. Three of those days the mercury reached 107 degrees. Five high temperature records have fallen this month, and three more days tied previous records. This includes a 105 degree high on July 17, reached shortly before the downpour began. That beat the previous high of 101 degrees from 1978. All three of the 107 degree days beat previous records.

Despite this, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map (dated July 12) shows the Texas panhandle in good shape. There is a small area of abnormally dry conditions SW of Amarillo. But all other areas, including Dallam and Hartley counties, are considered drought free.

What does the future hold? The Climate Prediction Center is giving our area a 33% chance of above average temperatures through the end of September. As for rainfall, the CPC is calling for equal chances of above, below or normal rainfall, which should help keep us drought free! This information was released back on June 16.

Next blog post, we take a look back at April 2016 - as a costly hail storm ushered in a wet spring.

July High Temperature Records Broken

July 17 105 - beat 101 from 1978
July 11 107 - beat 103 from 1954
July 10 107 - beat 103 from 2009
July 7 107 - beat 103 from 1957
July 5 104 - beat 102 from 1966

July High Temperature Records Tied

July 16 102 - tied 102 from 2011
July 13 102 - tied 102 from 2010
July 6 105 - tied 105 from 1973

Severe Weather Likely Friday (4-15) - including large hail and a tornado or two.

This little storm packed a big punch, dropping large hail on Hwy 54 in 2009. 

By Aaron Graves

Friday and Saturday are looking more and more like severe weather days. With that in mind, we will review a few good ways you can receive advanced warning of dangerous weather. 


First, though, the updated forecast. The Amarillo office of the National Weather Service is calling for a 70% chance of storms Friday and Saturday. Storms could start Friday afternoon, but the main event looks to be Friday evening through the day on Saturday.

Now, the fine print. The Storm Prediction Center shows the risk of severe weather encompasses a large part of the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico. Storms will initially be scattered, which means it will be raining here and there. Translation - you might watch a storm go by to the north, and one go by to the south, and it doesn't rain a drop at your house.

However, if you end up being in the path of a storm, you could experience heavy rain, strong - maybe damaging - wind, and possibly large hail. There is the danger of a stray tornado or two, so make sure you stay alert.

(With the risk area including eastern New Mexico, I am always worried about storms that start near the border and move our direction. Those storms have sufficient time to grow and mature and - in my opinion - will be the greatest hail/tornado threat to residents of Dallam and Hartley counties.)

Staying safe during severe weather involves two things: 1) being able to receive storm warnings and 2) knowing where you need to be if a storm is bearing down on you. During the day, you can usually keep tuned in to an Amarillo TV station or listen to local radio. However, in this age of smart phones, there are several good, free apps that can alert you to an oncoming tornado - even at night while you sleep. Here are a few I have found and used... (Keep in mind, I use an iPhone, but most of these apps work on Android phones as well. If you don't have a smart phone, keep reading, there are other options listed below).

WEA ALERT - Smartphones have a built in WEA warning alert - you might have heard it go off during an Amber alert, or last year when Dalhart was under a tornado warning. Make sure your phone's settings allow you to get this alert. If a tornado is bearing down on you, this warning will wake you out of the deepest sleep. 

AMARILLO TV STATION apps - all three major Amarillo television stations have weather apps for your smart phone. Search on KFDA, KVII, or KAMR in the app store. All three apps should allow you to configure push notifications to receive weather warnings. You can also view the station's radar. (On bad weather days, it might be wise to have all three apps on your phone).

TORNADO by the American Red Cross - an awesome, free app that will sound a VERY loud alarm on your smart phone if you are in the path of a tornado. In addition, you can have the app monitor other locations, in case your loved ones live in a different town. Finally, it has a section on how to stay safe depending on where you are - at school, at work, at home, in your car. It's worth the read.

NO SMART PHONE? - sign up for free text and/or e-mail alerts at www.r2beready.com. It is a free service of the Panhandle Area Regional Information System. On the site's main page, look for "Mass Notification for Panhandle Residents" and click the link. Once there, select the counties you want to receive alerts for, and the kind of alerts you want (look for National Weather Service Severe Notifications). After that, enter the phone and e-mail you want to use, and make sure you click the box to accept text messages.

DO NOT RELY SOLEY ON TORNADO SIRENS - The tornado sirens work nice here in Dalhart, but if your indoors or out of range, you may not hear the sirens in time. Make sure you are monitoring TV, radio, and/or your smartphone as well.

WATCH THE SKY -  nature gives us plenty of warning. If an approaching storm looks scary, then take it serious and seek shelter. This is especailly true on Friday, seeing as how the NWS and SPC have been warning us about it since Tuesday. Don't think what you are looking at is only rain - remember, it could be large hail, or a developing torando headed your way. Don't panic, just stay safe.

Pattern Change May Halt Drought - Bring Severe Weather

Snow in Dalhart on March 26, quickly melting the next day.

by Aaron Graves

Drought is rearing its ugly head again, as our dry winter has continued into the start of spring. However, the pattern is about to change and we may see, not only rain this weekend, but severe weather, with storms capable of large hail. There is also potential for a stray tornado or two.

A rainy and stormy weekend is in the forecast!

Friday and Saturday look to be worthy of note, with a 60% chance of storms on Friday and a 70% chance on Saturday. Make sure you keep an eye on the sky and have a way to receive weather warnings. More on that below.

(From my experience, I always take note when the NWS and the Storm Prediction Center highlight potential severe weather four or five days ahead of time. They don't do this often, and when they do it shows their confidence in the forecast. Talk of a stormy weekend began yesterday, and so far the forecast hasn't changed. If we still have a 50%+ chance of storms in the forecast come Thursday night, I would be particularly concerned about Friday.)

Severe weather aside, the potential for rainfall is very welcome. Back on March 8, the U.S. Drought Monitor map first declared all of Dallam County and part of Hartley County as "abnormally dry". This area of dryness spread across most of the Texas panhandle throughout the month. The latest map, dated April 5, shows Dallam and Hartley counties in "moderate drought".

We have only seen 0.41" of precipitation since the beginning of the year. On average, we should have 2.50" by April 13. Last year, we had already received 3.39".

The last time we saw any moisture was a surprisingly fun snow storm back on March 26. I measured 7" at my house, which fell over a 6 hour period. Glancing through social media, other areas of Dalhart got 5" or more. It had all melted away by the next evening.

The NWS says the snow equaled 0.16" of rainfall. It was our only measurable precipitation in March, and the first since a mere 0.05" on February 3.

But maybe it will all change this weekend. The Amarillo NWS is calling for a POSSIBLE 2.5" of total rainfall around Dalhart between Friday and Monday, with lesser amounts to the west and higher amounts to the east. See the graphic posted above.

With severe weather a possibility, make sure you have a way of receiving severe weather warnings. If you have a smart phone, there are numerous apps that will alert you - including apps from the Amarillo TV Stations. Likewise, make sure your smartphone is set to receive the WEA Emergency Alerts - which will go off if Dalhart is threatened by a tornado. You can also sign up for e-mail and text message alerts from www.r2beready.com, a free service from the Panhandle Area Regional Information System.

Likewise, think now about what you will do on Friday if a tornado or hail storm is headed your way. Do you know where to seek shelter at school, work, home or in the car? Make a plan today, don't wait until the last minute.

I plan on updating this blog tomorrow and Friday to keep track of the forecast. I will also talk more about weather warning apps and staying safe. 

Drought conditions likely to stay away for awhile

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

Is the drought really gone, or will it return? That's the "million dollar question" I asked Nicholas Fenner at the National Weather Service office in Amarillo. Since a lot credit went to an El Niño weather pattern for breaking our drought, what is going to happen once it fades away? Will our local weather patterns return to normal, or slip back into drought?

The short answer? Thanks to all the precipitation we saw in 2015, along with what could be a wetter-than-normal spring, we should be in good shape for awhile.

We enjoyed a wonderfully wet 2015, with 21.37" of precipitation as recorded at the Dalhart airport. That was 3.78" above normal and our 11th wettest year on record. No surprise, then, that our four year severe drought came to a sudden, soggy end.

The drought relief was area-wide. "Most locations in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles received between 150%-200% of normal precipitation by year’s end," reads the 2015 Weather Year in Review posted on the Amarillo NWS website. "Precipitation totals comparable to this year had not been seen since the 1960’s. Amarillo reached its 4th wettest year on record. Other locations including Borger, Pampa, and Lipscomb experienced their wettest year on record. Beneficial rainfall during the year finally pushed Lake Meredith back above 25% capacity (first time since 2006) and Greenbelt above 23% capacity."

El Niño refers to warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which helps to alter weather patterns across the United States. The current El Niño is one of the strongest on record. The Amarillo NWS report continues: "This oceanic and atmospheric pattern helped direct many notable weather systems across the Panhandles [in 2015] including a January snowstorm that brought 12 inches of snow to Amarillo, record-setting rainfall in May, river and playa lake flooding throughout the summer, a rare November tornado outbreak, and a Thanksgiving weekend ice storm that halted holiday travel for many."

But then things dried up. Now, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows abnormally dry conditions in and around Boise City, Oklahoma, just 40 minutes north of us. Why?

El Niño isn't the final authority on who gets rain or not. "Since El Niño represents only a piece of the overall climate puzzle, shorter term climate patterns were likely behind the unusual pattern in January and February," Fenner said. He then put our dry winter into context. Even though Dalhart received 0.80" of precipitation from December 2015 through February 2016, he noted it was still wetter than 25 other years since 1949. "So, nothing at drought level yet," he said.

Fenner continued: "El Niño patterns typically influence

weather through the spring time when they are on the decline, so we can still expect better chances for above normal precipitation through the rest of the spring. It will only take a pattern change to see a southern shift of the jet stream again." Fenner's optimism is backed up by the the Climate Prediction Center, which is calling for a 50% chance of above normal precipitation for New Mexico and most of the Texas Panhandle through the end of May. In addition, the CPC seasonal drought outlook gives us the all clear over the next three months.

Still, the current El Niño is weakening. Will this allow the drought to return? "That's the million dollar question," Fenner answered. He noted that we are in a much better position with sufficient soil moisture to handle most short term dry patterns, such as what we saw over the past few months. Barring a prolonged hot and dry period, we should be in good shape. If we do get above average rainfall this spring, all the better.

The first week of March was mild and quiet, with highs generally in the 70's. This pattern is forecast to continue through the weekend. Keep in mind that windy, dry days give rise to wildfire dangers. Dallam and Hartley counties are currently under burn bans.

The NWS will hold storm spotter training at the fire department on Monday, March 14, at 6 p.m. It is free and open to the public. More on that in a special blog post coming soon.

Isn't It Suppose To Snow During Winter?

Dalhart Weather Review 

Dalhart Sunset from the end of February

by Aaron Graves

It is the beginning of March, and spring is just around the corner. The Dalhart Weather Review has emerged from its winter hibernation in expectation of all the wonderful days ahead of us. Warm temperatures, green grass, children laughing at the park, colorful flowers, the smell of rain in the air, and the rumble of thunder at night are some of the sights and sounds that make this time of year so special. 

As we begin our March towards spring - pun intended - one big question hangs in the air like dust from the local feed yards: will the drought return? I don't ask this to create unnecessary drama for what is basically a weather blog written during a prolonged period of nice, sunny weather. After four years of extreme drought conditions, it is widely thought that our drought relief was due to the El Niño weather pattern. What happens, though, when the El Niño goes away? Will our local weather return to normal, or will it swing back towards drought?

That is a question that I will attempt to...... no, actually, it is a question I will ask some people who know a lot more about weather and climate than I do. I will let them answer that question in next week's blog.

For now let's look back on what has happened over the past few months. Dalhart finished 2015 with a grand total of 21.23" of precipitation. We picked up 1.02" in November and 0.55" in December to round out the year. Some of that came in the form of ice and snow, with the biggest snowfall on December 27. We typically see a big snowstorm late December, but this one tracked further south leaving us with only 1.5" here in Dalhart.

Likewise, January and February did not bring any big storms. Dalhart has an underwhelming grand total of 2.5" of measurable snowfall for the winter of 2015/2016. On average, we should have in the neighborhood of 13" by March 1.

January and February are typically dry months for Dalhart. Our overall precipitation total since January 1 is a quarter inch. That puts us 0.67" behind normal for this time of year. 

Was El Niño to blame for our warm and dry winter? Or is the drought hiding behind a big pile of tumbleweeds waiting for El  Niño to go on his merry way before pouncing on us again? We'll get the experts to weigh in on those questions next week.

Until then expect sunny and dry weather through this weekend, with high temperatures fluctuating between the mid 60's and the upper 70's.

Weather Stats For The Last 4 Months

Avg. High - Avg. Low - Precip -  Snowfall

Nov 2015: 62.1 - 30.1 - 1.02" - 0.5"

Dec 2015: 52.9 - 25.2 - 0.55" - 1.5 "

Jan 2016: 52.7 - 21.5 - 0.11" - Trace

Feb 2016: 62.3 - 27.0 - 0.14" - 0.5 "

Second Season Scare Spins Up Seventeen Spinning Cyclones

By Aaron Graves

Not one, not two, but 17 November tornadoes! October and November are known to bring be a second severe weather season in our area, but this year took the cake! As can be seen on the map to the right, there was a total of 17 tornadoes on November 16, two of which were rated EF3.

Dalhart, as usually, was too far west to see any real severe weather, but not by much. We were included in the tornado watch issued by the National Weather Service, and northern Dallam County saw some rain early in the afternoon as storms developed. Late in the evening, a secondary wave of wind and rain blew through, bringing us 0.05" of precipitation, as recorded at the airport.

Pampa tornado lit up by a power flash, from Chris Sanner of TornadoTitans.com

The storms that developed further east were the problem, 
particularly for the Pampa area. Dalhart's junior high basketball teams were in Pampa and had to take shelter from two back-to-back tornadoes. Both of those tornadoes were rated EF3. The first struck over open country but did some damage to trees and power lines. The second tornado came within three miles of Pampa and hit an oil plant.

Sturdy, commercial steel frame buildings were completely leveled at the Haliburton oil plant, according to a damage survey by the NWS. A number of cars were tossed on top of the rubble. A manufactured home south of Pampa was also destroyed.

All of this spring-like severe weather was followed the next day by cold temperatures and snow! We went from a high of 75 degrees on Nov. 16 to a high of 41 on Nov, 17. It snowed - at times quite heavy - in Dalhart, but it didn't stick. However, Texline received 4 inches, Boise City 6 inches, and Clayton was under a blizzard warning. Dalhart received another 0.09" of precipitation from the snow flurries on the 17th.

So what's up with all the wacky weather? Actually, nothing unusually. In spring, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north and interacts with cooler, dry Arctic air. It's this mix that provides the basic set-up for severe weather. Other factors are involved in producing tornadic storms, but as this boundary between hot and cold air masses moves further north over the summer months, so does the general tornado threat. During October and November, as cold air begins to push the warm air back down south, the severe weather threat returns to our area. Thus, a second season of severe weather.

What was unusual was having those extra ingredients in place to spawn tornado producing supercell thunderstorms this far west. That's more of an Oklahoma thing this time of year. However, it's not unheard of. Just last year, residents of Dalhart and Hartley were taking shelter after dark on Oct. 9 from a tornado-warned storm. Also unusual was the intensity of the event. The atmospheric ingredients necessary for two EF3 tornadoes are more common during the spring.

As I post this blog (Wed. Nov. 25), Dalhart is again looking at a chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight, followed by ice and snow over the next few days. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. Just 40 miles away, Dumas is under an Ice Storm Warning. This should make for an interesting blog next week.

Odds 50/50 for Snowier Than Normal Winter

Fall colors in Dalhart will soon give way to snow.

Dalhart Weather Review
by Aaron Graves

We know it's going to snow at some point this winter. We may even have a good guess as to when based on past experience. However, with Dalhart's annual precipitation total 3" above normal, and Amarillo already at its 4th wettest year on record, expectations are running high for this winter's snowfall. Will it be a winter to remember?

The National Weather Service in Amarillo just released their winter outlook for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The big story is the ongoing Strong El Niño weather pattern. Of course, this is not the only thing that affects weather in the Texas Panhandle, but it does have an influence.  "Previous years that share the same strength of this event have shown a more active southerly storm track that may impact the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles," reads the outlook.

The main question is, what does this mean for us over the next few months? In summary, the NWS is calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, including snowfall. However, if a dry spell develops and sticks around for a bit, elevated wildfire conditions may become a problem.

The Climate Prediction Center gives the current El Niño a 95% chance of lasting through February 2016, and an 85% chance that it will still be here in May. Our area has a 50% chance of seeing above normal precipitation over the winter months, according to the CPC.

Why the risk for wildfires? "Plenty of available fuels exist," reads the outlook. After a wet spring and summer, the grass is lush. However, low relative humidity - even during winter - can dry out the grass and make it ripe for burning.

Historically, El Niño events have been good to us in the rain and snow categories. "An assessment of previous strong El Niño events revealed 1 to 2 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal temps, and 20% to 30% above normal precipitation for the Panhandle region," reads the outlook. "7 of the 10 snowiest winters in Amarillo occurred during El Niño events, with 3 of the top 6 occurring during strong events."

Similar strong El Niño were around in 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, and 1997-98. I consulted a rather comprehensive list of rain totals for Dalhart that was updated by Warren Slaughter at Secre-tel a few years ago. Warren used existing local records and data from the NWS for his update. Since then, I have been adding to it with data from the NWS website. Sure enough, the effects of El Niño can be seen here in Dalhart during some of those years.

After a bone dry winter in 1956, over 7" of precipitation was recorded between October 1957 and March 1958. In 1996, our annual precipitation total reached 26.06" - the highest rain total at that point since 1962.

For 2015, Dalhart has received 19.81" of precipitation as of Nov. 9. We haven't seen this much rain and snow since 2004 when we got 22.01". Here's another notable figure. During the recent drought, our precipitation total over a THREE YEAR period (2011, 2012, and 2013) added up to 20.54". We are just 0.73" shy of that total for 2015.